According to a New York Times/Siena College poll, Vice President Kamala Harris’ support among Hispanic voters is dangerously low for Democrats, while her rival, former President Donald J. Trump, has maintained his strength with the fast-growing group poised to decide control of the White House.
The study of the probable Latino electorate across the country found Ms. Harris underperforming the previous three Democratic presidential contenders and vulnerable on a number of key topics, including the economy, immigration, and crime.
Mr. Trump, who stunned Democrats four years ago with his appeal to Latinos, particularly men, has only reinforced his grasp — even as he wraps up his campaign with a fiercely anti-immigrant stance.
The poll discovered that the rising attacks on immigrants had not propelled Latino voters to Ms. Harris. Two-thirds of those polled said Mr. Trump was not referring to people like them when he talked about immigrants. (Half of foreign-born Hispanic voters agreed.)
The statistics underline Latinos’ role as key swing votes in presidential elections. The last Democrat to go below 60% among Latino voters was John Kerry, the losing nominee in 2004. Over a decade ago, approximately 70% of Latino voters supported President Barack Obama’s reelection. Since then, Mr. Trump has undermined this support.
Both parties have aggressively courted Hispanic voters this year, and the survey indicates that people’ decisions may yet change: Approximately one-quarter claimed they were uncertain or persuadable, which is slightly more than the total number of probable voters. Those undecided voters like Ms. Harris.
The poll of 902 Hispanic potential voters, conducted from September 29 to October 6, reveals strong support for Mr. Trump’s most draconian immigration policies: More over one-third of Hispanic voters support both building a wall along the US-Mexico border and deporting undocumented immigrants. Trump backers account for the vast majority of such support, but 9 percent of Harris voters agree. Latinos born in the United States overwhelmingly supported such programs.
Approximately four in ten Hispanic voters said they did not take the former president seriously when he talked, with half of men saying they took his statements too seriously.
Jessie Saucedo, 39, a long-haul truck driver in Houston, said he voted for Barack Obama but was almost certain he would vote for Donald Trump in November. He argues that Democrats have overreacted in their “weaponization of the government” against the previous president. Mr. Saucedo stated that he had not paid much attention to politics until Mr. Trump assumed the presidency.
“I have heard a lot of people say that he is racist, but I honestly don’t think he is racist,” Mr. Saucedo told me. “All of the stuff was taken out of context.”
A majority of Hispanic voters—55 percent—believed people had good reason to be angered by Mr. Trump’s remarks.
The poll found that Latino voters, like other demographic groupings, are deeply divided by gender. Hispanic men are much more likely than Hispanic women to support Donald Trump.
According to the survey, Mr. Trump is losing a tiny but significant share of voters who supported President Biden in 2020, with 9 percent of Biden supporters asked saying they would vote for Mr. Trump this year. Hispanic voters who did not vote in 2020 were more likely than others to declare they would vote for Donald Trump.
Judith Camacho, 28, a teacher in Kirtland, N.M., who wants to vote for Mr. Trump, expressed concern that some immigrants coming to the United States would cause harm and that she did not support illegal immigration.