According to a recent poll, voters are still divided on whether Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Kamala Harris should manage major economic concerns, with Harris receiving slightly higher grades on subjects such as middle-class taxation.
In a survey conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, the majority of registered voters described the economy as weak. Approximately 7 in 10 people believe the country is headed in the wrong way.
However, the statistics confirm that Trump has lost his lead on the economy, which many Americans believe is the most important topic this election season, surpassing abortion, immigration, crime, and international affairs.
“Do I trust Trump on the economy? No. I believe he would provide tax breaks to his cronies like Elon Musk,” said survey respondent Janice Tosto, a 59-year-old Philadelphia woman and self-described independent.
An AP-NORC poll conducted in September indicated that neither Harris nor Trump had a distinct advantage in handling “the economy and jobs.” However, this poll asked more specific questions about whether people trusted Trump or Harris to handle housing costs, jobs and unemployment, middle-class taxes, grocery and gas prices, and tariffs.
According to the study, 46% of people favor Harris on middle-class taxes, while 35% support Trump. Harris has a minor advantage in terms of housing costs. Voters are evenly divided on whether Trump or Harris is better on costs for everyday necessities such as groceries and gas, and neither candidate has an advantage on jobs and unemployment.
Meanwhile, voters are marginally more likely to support Trump on the topic of tariffs, which the poll described as charges on imported goods.
Amber Moody, 36, of Halifax, Virginia, said she trusts Trump—and Republicans in general—much more on economic issues.
“It seems to me that in my lifetime, every time a Democrat holds office, the economy suffers,” according to her. “Prices rise, taxes rise, and the national debt increases. While I do not agree with everything Donald Trump says and does, I believe he is the superior choice.
Voters view Harris more favorably than Trump.
Voters’ perceptions of Harris and Trump have stayed consistent over the last month.
Approximately half of voters have a very or somewhat favorable impression of Harris, while 46% view her negatively. Meanwhile, roughly four out of ten voters support Trump, while approximately six out of ten oppose him. Trump’s favorability ratings have remained fairly steady in recent months, despite two assassination attempts and a felony conviction.
In comparison to last month, the candidates’ views among Black and Hispanic voters, as well as men and women, have remained consistent. Black voters have largely positive opinions of Harris, with almost three-quarters favoring the Democratic candidate, while their views of Trump are negative, with only about two in ten favoring him. Harris is likewise viewed more favorably by Hispanic voters than Trump, albeit the gap is narrower: almost 6 in 10 Hispanic people favor Harris, while approximately 4 in 10 favor Trump.
The poll also reveals a gender disparity in the candidates’ beliefs as the race nears its end.
Approximately half of female voters favor Harris, while just about one-third favor Trump. Approximately half of men favor Harris, and a same proportion support Trump.
Voters are negative about the economy and the nation.
Overall, respondents are pessimistic about the health of the economy and the country’s future orientation.
Approximately half of voters rate the country’s economy as extremely or somewhat poor. Republicans and independents are more likely than Democrats to share this viewpoint. However, there are some signs of progress as compared to an AP-NORC poll conducted in October 2023, when approximately 7 in 10 Americans said the US economy was in bad health. The figure was considerably worse in October 2022, when over 8 in 10 Americans regarded the economy as dismal.
Approximately two-thirds of voters believe the country is headed in the wrong way, while roughly one-third believe things are going in the right one. Pessimism on that issue has been fairly stable over the last three years, but nearly 8 in 10 Americans believed the United States was headed in the wrong direction a year ago. U.S. people were equally pessimistic right before the last presidential election, according to an AP-NORC poll from October 2020, when about 7 in 10 Americans believed the country was heading in the wrong direction.
Jeffrey Trimble, a 62-year-old Democrat from Hermitage, Pennsylvania, said he’s feeling more positive about the country’s future after “four years of hell” during Trump’s first term.
“We have some really good people at the top of our government who have a vision, they’re kind, they’re trying to get us back on track,” Trimble said the crowd.
Overall, the new survey shows symptoms of problems for both candidates as they attempt to form winning alliances.
Younger voters are significantly more negative about the state of the economy than older voters, which is bad news for Harris, whose party has always relied on strong support from people of color and young people.
Voters under the age of 45 are also slightly less likely than voters over 45 to trust Harris with housing, groceries, and gas costs, though this does not imply a preference for Trump. A sizable proportion of younger voters—about one-quarter on both issues—trust neither candidate or both equally.
Trump’s primary concern remains immigration.
On other subjects, Trump’s biggest constant advantage remains immigration.
Forty-five percent of people believe he is the best choice to manage immigration issues, compared to around four in ten who choose Harris. About half of white Americans believe Trump is more trustworthy on immigration than Harris, while roughly one-third believe the opposite. Hispanic voters are divided over which candidate they prefer to handle immigration.
Harris’ strongest issues are abortion policy, with about half of voters saying she’d be better on that issue than Trump; climate change, where about half prefer Harris’ leadership and about two in ten prefer Trump’s; and election integrity, where about half prefer Harris and three in ten prefer Trump.
The contenders are roughly equal on the topic of crime. Foreign policy is also a major topic this fall, while neither candidate has a clear advantage in the Middle East. However, Harris’s own party shows some symptoms of weakness on this topic. Only around two-thirds of Democratic voters believe Harris is the best candidate to manage the Middle East crisis. Approximately 80% of Republicans believe Trump would be better.
Diana Campbell Williams, a 72-year-old Democrat from Auburn, Michigan, says global affairs is her main priority.
She expressed concern about Russia, Iran, and North Korea. She dislikes Trump’s criticism of NATO and his friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“I trust Harris more,” Williams remarked. “I feel she knows more about what’s going on, and I prefer the type of people she’d be surrounded by after the election.”