According to some assessments of the presidential election, voters may be forgiven for believing Vice President Kamala Harris is in serious peril, while former President Donald Trump is preparing for a White House return.
However, both campaigns are prepared for a coin flip contest, with each side seeing both avenues to victory and potential pitfalls, according to interviews with six operatives from both parties.
Democrats have began their biennial custom of chewing their nails down to the cuticles, a level of nervousness that some in the party believe does not accurately represent Harris’ chances. And, while Republicans are relieved that Harris’ summer surge has subsided, they acknowledge that the race is far from over for Trump and warn the party and its supporters against overconfidence.
Taken together, despite the constant churn in Washington Beltway-fueled analysis of the race’s “vibes,” the presidential fight is taking place in what is commonly regarded as a 50-50 country, and hence a jump ball.
“Democrats consistently see the glass as half-empty rather than half-full. “I think the reality is this election is so tight, it’s exactly where we thought it would be three months ago, that it was going to be a jump ball election, that there were a handful of states that were going to be on the razor’s edge,” said Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson.
Democrats were ecstatic during the summer once Harris replaced President Joe Biden as their contender, igniting enthusiasm for a party that had previously been pessimistic about its chances of retaining the presidency. On August 23, FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average put her 3.7 points ahead of Biden after months of behind.
As of Thursday, her lead was at 1.7 points, a seemingly insignificant decline that sent some party members and operatives into a tailspin.
Quotes, mostly anonymous, circulated in the media concerning concerns that the race was slipping away as critical swing states got inside the poll’s margin of error. Scarred by a 2016 cycle in which Hillary Clinton lost to Trump despite polls showing her far ahead, Democratic whispers spread about what would happen if Trump joined a presidential election as anything other than an underdog.
“Democrats who follow this closely but aren’t necessarily working for campaigns on a day-to-day basis were hoping that she was going to pull away and are coming to the realization that this race is much closer than they hoped,” according to a person familiar with the campaign’s strategy.
Democrats’ predilection for handwringing is “something that’s been true for decades,” the source added, and “given the concern over Donald Trump, not surprising that there is an especially large amount of bedwetting this fall.”
However, seasoned operatives believe the doom and gloom does not accurately reflect Harris’ chances on November 5.
Polls, both nationally and in swing states, have never shown her consistently lagging beyond the margin of error. She has a strong ground strategy, especially as compared to Trump, who has relied on supportive outside groups. And, whereas Trump is a well-known figure after decades in the spotlight and four years in the White House, people’ impressions of Harris are more fluid, providing her with an opportunity to boost her chances.
On top of that, there is a trend of voters rejecting Trump in 2018, 2020, and 2022, high early voting numbers, an opponent in Trump who has been unable to stick to policy-focused messaging, an improving economy, and powerful abortion messaging, despite voter frustrations with inflation and immigration.
To be sure, Harris can still lose. However, this does not imply certainty, leaving operatives like Jim Kessler, a co-founder of the center-left think tank Third Way, feeling “panically optimistic.”
“It’s going to be nervy and nail-biting all the way through. But, if you look objectively, I believe there are a lot of positive signs for Harris,” he remarked.
“The bedwetting makes sense to me based on the stakes, but not so much based on the odds,” said a source acquainted with the Harris team’s reasoning.
Republicans, for their part, do not take anything for granted.
The GOP is euphoric after a summer in which Trump’s odds fell as Harris’ surged — but, like Harris, his destiny is far from assured, and Republicans are cautioning against overconfidence while yet relishing the more level playing field.
Could it be a wave? Sure, absolutely. However, these polls remain tight,” noted a national Republican strategist. “I hope Republicans don’t get too enthused and forget to vote. That’s what you’re seeing right now: Republicans have this almost out-of-body experience about how we’re going to win all these states, and it won’t be close.”
“I’m always concerned” about overconfidence, the person said. “You should always run like you’re down a point.”
Trump and his surrogates continue to blitz the campaign circuit, appearing for (mostly favorable) interviews and looking to be prepared to go over the footage.
And Republicans have been burned before: in 2022, the media and operatives of both parties promised a midterm red wave that never materialized despite months of speculation that Republicans were poised to rebound from their 2020 defeat.
“In a meeting, they will remark, ‘Don’t measure the curtains.’ “It’s a very uncomfortable moment in Trumpworld because experience has taught us that anything can go wrong, but everything is going our way,” said one person in Trump’s orbit.
“The specter of 2022 is frequently mentioned in the campaign office. And I believe the most crucial feature of 2022 is that Trump did not appear on the ballot,” the person stated. “But the missing red wave is brought up often.”
That worry, on both sides, reflects the country’s even political split — and, according to operatives, will likely define the rest of the 2024 presidential race.
“At the end of the day, it’ll be down to tens of thousands of votes in one, two, or three states. “If you had asked in February 2023, this is where the country is right now,” claimed one former top Trump administration official.
“If you’re not running scared,” Kessler explained, “you’re running to lose.”