Senate Republicans seeking to replace longstanding leader Mitch McConnell have been traveling around the country to campaign and fundraise for colleagues, making their final arguments before a crucial ballot the week following the presidential election. However, their arguments are primarily made behind closed doors, and most Republican senators have yet to announce which congressman they support.
South Dakota’s John Thune, McConnell’s current No. 2, and Texas’ John Cornyn, who held the position before Thune, are the front-runners in the Nov. 13 secret ballot to succeed McConnell. The Kentucky senator will leave office in January after nearly two decades as leader. If Republicans gain enough seats in Tuesday’s election, the winner will be able to set the party’s course for years to come and may even become the next Senate majority leader.
The outcome is currently unknown.
Only a few Republican senators have publicly supported a candidate. Many admit they are still undecided. The third senator in the contest, Florida Sen. Rick Scott, who is up for reelection, might be a spoiler. Another contender could still step in.
In many aspects, “the two Johns” are strikingly similar, making the decision difficult for their peers. Both are popular and, like McConnell, tend to support the Republican Party’s more traditional wing. However, both have stated that they will aim to move on from the McConnell era with a more open approach.
“I’m trying to find differentiation because they’re both great guys,” said Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican from North Carolina who has worked closely with both of them.
The two guys are also trying to distance themselves from McConnell by stating unequivocally that they back Donald Trump in this year’s presidential election. They, like McConnell, have previously sparred with Trump, particularly during the Capitol attack on January 6, 2021. However, both Thune and Cornyn have spoken with Trump often in recent months, attended campaign events, and visited his Florida property.
If Trump wins and endorses one of the candidates, it might be a deciding factor.
“I don’t know what he’ll do,” Cornyn remarked about Trump in September. “But this is obviously an election between senators, and I think that’s where the voters are.”
Some of the former president’s most powerful Senate allies are pushing him to remain above the fray. Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullin, who supports Thune, said he has been trying to persuade Trump not to endorse him. Trump recognizes “the need to work with whoever the next leader is,” Mullin stated.
Tillis indicated that Trump’s endorsement could backfire.
“You have to be careful with the psychology of the Senate,” Mr. Tillis added. “We know one other quite well, and we spend many hours together. It’s a relatively small club.
Still, both Cornyn and Thune remain close to Trump. Cornyn met Trump during a trip to Texas in October and spoke at a rally in Nevada. Thune attended an event in August alongside Trump’s running mate, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance.
Thune, who said after the Jan. 6 attack that Trump’s attempts to disrupt the peaceful transfer of power were “inexcusable,” told The Associated Press this summer that he saw their possible relationship as professional. Thune stated that if they both win their races, “we’ve got a job to do.”
Scott, on the other hand, has long been a friend of Trump’s and has positioned himself as a staunch supporter. Scott went to New York to support Trump during his hush money trial. Trump might endorse Scott in the campaign, perhaps increasing his chances of winning or giving him sway over the outcome.
In addition to private discussions, Thune and Cornyn have gone throughout the country to collect funds and advocate for their colleague senators.
Thune has made more than two dozen campaign visits for Republican Senate candidates, and aides estimate he has collected more than $31 million for Senate races this cycle, including a $4 million transfer to the Senate Republican campaign operation.
Cornyn has similarly canvassed candidates and thrown money into Texas races. His aides underline his extensive fundraising for Republicans, which totaled more than $400 million during his 22 years in the Senate, according to his office.
On policy, the two men are similar, voting largely in accordance with the conference but occasionally siding with Democrats. Cornyn is a long-standing member of the Senate Judiciary Committee who played a key role in bipartisan gun legislation two years ago. Thune previously served as chairman of the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, which was across the aisle.
It’s uncertain whether either could gain backing from the growing number of Republican senators who have opposed McConnell in recent years as he championed Ukraine aid while criticizing Trump. Many in the group supported Scott when he challenged McConnell following the 2022 elections.
Cornyn has called for a conference vote on setting term limits for the Republican leader, which might be an outreach to that group. “I believe the Senate needs more engagement from my colleagues, and that includes the opportunity for any member to serve in leadership,” Cornyn wrote in a March posting to X.
Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, a member of the more conservative wing, said he has not committed to the campaign but wants to see how they would move legislation and collaborate with Trump if he becomes president. “I think some of this will come into focus after the election when we know what we’re dealing with, we know what our caucus is going to be,” Hawley told the media.
Many members of that group, notably Scott and Utah Sen. Mike Lee, have advocated for devolving power to individual senators rather than leadership. Lee has produced a list of candidate demands, but neither Cornyn nor Thune have expressed a desire in bargaining.
However, both have indicated that they have heard the allegations.
Thune said in an AP interview that he’s willing to tweak the leader’s function, but he won’t leave the position to rank-and-file senators. He stated that he intended to “empower our individual members or committees to do things through regular order” and open up the amendment process, but “I’m not going to make wholesale changes that weaken the leader position to the point where it’s just a free-for-all.”
Tillis stated in September that any candidate engaging in deal-making would be a deal-breaker for him.
“If you would be willing to weaken your position to satisfy a few votes, then you’re unfit to be leader, in my opinion,” Tillis reported. “And I think most people think that way.”