Key Republicans are already pressuring the incoming Trump administration to pull South Africa out of lucrative trade deals if the country does not modify its stance on Russia, China, Iran, and Israel.
Most at risk are South Africa’s duty-free exports to the United States of vehicles and citrus fruit under AGOA – the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which might result in the loss of tens of thousands of African jobs. South Africa is likely to face heavy scrutiny from the incoming administration.
In 2023, the Center for African Studies at Howard University warned that a government seeking AGOA’s preferential trade deals “cannot act in a manner that undermines U.S. national security or foreign policy interests”.
South Africa participates in exercises with Russia’s military planes and naval vessels, allowing the Kremlin and its sanctioned warships to use Pretoria’s naval sites. Senior South African military leaders received instruction in Moscow. At the United Nations, South Africa refused to denounce Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
South Africa’s ruling ANC party has met with the terror group Hamas, and one branch recently backed a local Muslim leader who reportedly shouted to an applauding throng, “I am Hamas, Cape Town is Hamas, Viva Hamas!”. The administration also published a statement denouncing Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination earlier this year. Ronald Lamola, the country’s foreign minister, condemned the “assassination” of the alleged terrorist commander, stating that “such acts of extrajudicial killings violate international law.”
South Africa has accused Israel of genocide before the International Court of Justice.
South Africa’s largest commercial partner is China, and the two countries are founding members of the BRICS trade organization. South Africa has welcomed Iran’s membership in the BRICS. There have been suspicions of close ties between Tehran and Pretoria.
“Given the South African positions on the Russia-Ukraine and Mideast conflicts, South Africa is leaning away from American positions in a number of ways, most especially in its vigorous pursuit of Israel and its leaders in the international courts,” J. Brooks Spector, an AWN Digital reporter, said.
Spector, a former US diplomat now based in Johannesburg and deputy editor of the respected Daily Maverick, added that “continuing action and rhetoric by South Africa in its pursuit of Israel in international court efforts will, however, encourage Republicans in Congress (and probably in the administration as well) to strip South Africa of benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act, assuming the act is renewed next year.”
“Such pursuits by the South African government may also lead to efforts to cut back on assistance to important efforts such as PEPFAR – the aid program that, together with the Global Fund and local organizations, has been crucial in the country’s successful efforts combatting HIV and AIDS.”
One such leading Republican, Sen. Jim Risch of Idaho, ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told AWN Digital, “I remain concerned about South Africa’s efforts to cozy up to Russia, China, and Iran, including Iran’s terror proxies, and the impact this has on US national security – a critical component of AGOA eligibility.” My oversight efforts will continue to center on the country’s foreign policy initiatives.
Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Africa and member of the Senate Finance Committee, slammed South Africa in 2023, saying, “South Africa has harbored sanctioned Russian ships, expanded relations with Iran, and issued statements against Israel’s right to defend itself following Hamas’ recent terror attacks”
Both of these influential Republican leaders are expected to gain power when President-elect Trump takes office in January. According to Scott’s office staff, “Sen. Scott looks forward to working with the Trump administration to ensure that AGOA participants are not undermining our national security interests.”
South Africa’s actions are undoubtedly under intense scrutiny in Washington. From inside the beltway, Richard Goldberg told AWN Digital that he is concerned about potential linkages between South Africa and Iran. Goldberg is a former member of the National Security Council and senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He told AWN Digital, “The first step is to build the case publicly and give South Africa one last chance to choose.” We should declassify intelligence on South Africa’s close relationship with Iran, as well as any additional support or collaboration with terrorist groups.”
Goldberg went on, “Then we must use our full diplomatic and economic weight to force Pretoria to choose between the United States and our terrorist adversaries.” AGOA should be one of several options on the policy menu.
The South African Department of International Relations did not respond to multiple requests for comment. However, COSATU’s Parliamentary Coordinator, Matthew Parks, did. The Confederation of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) has historically aligned with President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC party. Parks is widely regarded for his meaningful and dignified pursuit of workers’ rights. If South Africa is forced to leave AGOA, his members stand to lose a lot, including their employment. However, he appeared cautiously optimistic when speaking with AWN Digital, saying, “We are confident that our relations with the United States will continue to grow, including through AGOA, simply because it is to the benefit of both our peoples.”
“We’ve been extensively involved in engagements between South Africa and the U.S., on how to deepen our relations and toward the renewal of AGOA,” Parks goaded. “We’ve engaged extensively with our colleagues in the U.S. labor movement, business community, Congress (both Republicans and Democrats), the State Department, Department of Labor, NSC and the White House.”
As Trump moves into the White House, Ebrahim Rassool, South Africa’s ambassador to the United States, will begin his second term. This month, he spoke with the Daily Maverick on South Africa’s issues with the current administration, namely South Africa’s attack on Israel at the International Court of Justice. “We will stick by the case, but let us now trust our legal team,” he told reporters, “trust the evidence that we have placed in front of the judges of the ICJ, trust the judges of the ICJ to come to a sustainable, just solution – but that we need to put away the megaphone now.”
Rassool pointed out that South African oranges exported to the United States through AGOA allowed Americans to consume orange juice all year long, even when Florida and California oranges were out of season.
Rassool went on to say, “Why would you want to punish America with expensive automobiles when BMWs from South Africa will be considerably cheaper than those from Germany or manufactured in your own country?
“Likewise, to point out that American cancer patients are receiving medical nuclear isotopes that come from South Africa.”
South Africa’s removal from AGOA would be “disastrous,” Renai Moothilal said in the Business Day newspaper last year. Moothilal, CEO of the National Association of Automotive Component & Allied makers, stated, “It will be no surprise if some component manufacturers close their doors.” U.S.-based multinational firms with operations in South Africa may leave the country if volume losses are associated with our exclusion from AGOA, or other types of political pressure are applied.”
Observers observe that President-elect Trump is making loud threats, including claiming that he will impose a 100% import tariff on countries such as South Africa if they develop a new currency to compete with the dollar as BRICS members. South African politicians, on the other hand, are taking a more placatory and cautious approach. The Democratic Alliance, or DA, is South Africa’s primary opposition party. However, since May, they have also been part of the government of national unity, collaborating with President Ramaphosa’s ANC in a sometimes contentious alliance.
According to Emma Powell, the DA’s national spokesperson for foreign affairs, Pretoria and Washington’s relationship is likely to become more transactional, with a greater emphasis on equitable reciprocity. This would go against the Biden administration’s policy on beneficiation-based investment and development. There is also likely to be less tolerance for any action by the South African government that is deemed to undermine the US’s national security objectives.”
According to Powell, “the Trump administration is also likely to take a more cautious approach on AGOA eligibility.”
J. Brooks Spector told AWN Digital that he could take away one strong positive: “The incoming U.S. president’s often-expressed support for transactional foreign economic policies may possibly be an incentive for Africa’s nations – urged on by South Africa – to come together with initiatives offering trade and market concessions to America.”