The 119th Congress begins on Friday amid a massive shift in power in Washington, as Republicans seize control of both chambers of Congress ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20.
The House’s first order of business will be to pick a speaker, a procedure that has resulted in high drama in recent years.
Republicans kept control of the House in the November elections, although by a historically thin margin. Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana appears to have the majority of his conference’s backing, as well as the endorsements of Trump and Elon Musk, the billionaire contributor who has advised the president-elect. However, Johnson’s victory on the first ballot is far from guaranteed. Republican Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky has stated that he will vote against Johnson, meaning that Johnson can only afford one more defection from his conference. According to HeadlinesForever, at least 17 Republicans remain unsure.
According to House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Democrats will not support Johnson’s candidacy.
How is the speaker elected?
To continue as speaker, Johnson will require the support of the majority of those present and voting. That indicates the number starts with 218. The official majority will be decided once Congress opens; the clerk reads the official number of election certificates received, which is used to determine the majority, and members record their attendance during a quorum call.
The simple majority can fluctuate depending on whether members are absent or vote “present,” which lowers the threshold required.
The most intriguing wild card is former Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz, who resigned from Congress in November after Trump appointed him as attorney general before later withdrawing.
Gaetz has considered returning to the Capitol to participate in the speaker’s vote and cause one last round of congressional upheaval. The House Ethics Committee produced a report on its inquiry into Gaetz’s infractions of House rules after he left the chamber, but he was reelected in November before stepping down.
If Gaetz does not return on Friday, as seems anticipated, the House will have 434 members, including 219 Republicans and 215 Democrats. This means that Johnson cannot afford to lose more than one defection; a second would prevent him from receiving the gavel.
Democratic Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, who had hip replacement surgery in December, said on X that she will be in the Capitol for the speaker vote.
What if Johnson loses the vote?
The House will continue to vote until a speaker is elected because without one, it cannot do business, such as certifying Trump’s presidential election results on Monday. The House could vote on a motion to approve a speaker by plurality, which means the most votes for any particular candidate. However, this would be harmful for Republicans and is doubtful. All Democrats are anticipated to vote for Jeffries.
Normally, the opening day at the House lasts about 2 1/2 hours. However, given how things happened two years ago, when Kevin McCarthy needed 15 rounds of voting to become speaker, anything is possible.
Here are some other situations when the House struggled to pick a speaker:
McCarthy was elected for a 15th time in 2023. Months later, Gaetz and seven other Republican lawmakers dismissed him.
Following nine rounds of voting, Fredrick Huntington Gillet was elected Speaker in 1923. While this may seem like a lot, the longest-running contest was…
In 1856, Nathaniel Prentice Banks of Massachusetts had spent only one term in Congress. Following his reelection as a member of the American Party, he was chosen speaker after 133 ballots, a process that took nearly two months, according to the House Historian.
1849: The House was in session for 19 days without being able to elect a speaker, as no candidate got a majority of votes. Finally, following the 59th ballot, the House approved a resolution allowing a speaker to be chosen by a plurality.
Does the speaker need to be a member of Congress?
No. The Constitution does not require the speaker to be a member, whether present or past. In fact, the speaker is expected to lead the entire House, not just one party. Some Republicans have recommended Musk for speaker.
Today’s schedule at the House
Noon: The House gavels in and conducts a recorded quorum call.
12:45-1 p.m.: The Speaker election begins.
TBD: Members and delegates will be sworn in after a speaker is elected.
TBD: Adoption of the 119th Congress’ rules package.
On the Senate side
Unlike the House, Senate leadership has already been decided ahead of Friday. And, while the new Congress is sure to deliver a slew of huge milestones, including a new Republican majority led by a new Republican leader, Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, who succeeds Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.
Friday’s Senate schedule
The Senate convenes at noon.
The Senate Chaplain leads the opening prayer and pledge of allegiance. Barry Black, the current chaplain, was hospitalized in mid-December due to a brain bleed. It is unknown whether he or another designee will deliver the opening prayer.
Swearing-in of senators: Typically, any senator who was elected in November will be sworn in for a new term, whether a freshly elected member or a returning incumbent. They usually take the oath in groups of four. Each senator being sworn in will be accompanied by an escort, usually a current or retired senator. Many senators will choose their home state senator as an escort, but this is not compulsory; some may choose friends or mentors.
Signing the oath book: After taking the oath, each senator will sign their name in the oath book at a certain location.
Establishing a quorum and passing organizing resolutions: After the members are sworn in, the majority leader will make a request to form a quorum. This is expected to be Thune’s role as party leader. The clerk will read the roll for the entire new Senate.