On Thursday, CIA Director Bill Burns issued a dire warning, saying that Ukraine risks “losing” the fight against Russia by year’s end unless the US provides additional military aid.
As lawmakers in Congress consider whether to approve a long-delayed aid package to Kyiv, his remarks constitute one of the most stern warnings about the stakes in Ukraine that the Biden administration has issued thus far.
In testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee just a month ago, Burns had warned that “Ukraine is likely to lose ground and probably significant ground in 2024” unless Congress moved to authorize additional support, which has been long obstructed by conservative opposition in the House of Representatives.
However, he cautioned that Ukraine may be compelled to surrender totally during his Thursday presentation at the George W. Bush Center.
I believe the Ukrainians can hold their own through 2024 with the boost that would come from military aid, both practically and psychologically,” Burns said.
“Things look a lot worse without additional help,” he went on to say. “By the end of 2024, the Ukrainians may have already lost the war, or Putin may have already placed himself in a position to dictate the conditions of a political settlement.”
As the Biden administration tries to take advantage of a surprising political window of opportunity on Capitol Hill to try to get the House to approve the aid package that has been stuck for so long, this warning arrives. House Speaker Mike Johnson is facing mounting pressure to expedite the package, which includes help for Israel, in the wake of the Iranian attack on Israel over the weekend. He has broken the legislation into several bills in an effort to appease the GOP’s divided sections; on Saturday night, the measure pertaining to aid for Ukraine is anticipated to go up for a vote.
On Thursday, Burns did not elaborate on his definition of “lose.” Officials continue to believe that Russia will not invade Ukraine in its entirety if the package fails to pass, according to a source familiar with Western intelligence who spoke to HEADLINESFOREVER.
But, following a pattern similar to that which followed Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine, Russia may reclaim much additional territory and then essentially freeze the battlelines in place in a de facto ceasefire. Even so, it would be considered “a loss.”
Burns went into detail on the critical shortage of basic ammunition that Ukraine is facing in the field. With “a grand total of 42 mortar rounds” and “15 artillery rounds per day,” he described two battalions, each consisting of more than 2,000 men.
“They were overwhelmed, and it wasn’t for lack of bravery or determination on their part. My worry is that we’re going to see more Avdiivkas in the future without supplemental assistance,” Burns said, referring to the Ukrainian city that was recently lost to Russian troops.
The battlefield situation in Ukraine has deteriorated dramatically due to the lack of ammunition and military equipment caused by the US and its allies’ difficulties in resupplying the country’s forces.