A redistricting fight is heating up, and Democratic leaders are under pressure to get involved. This fight may derail the midterms and run afoul of political and legal realities.
Officials in the most Democratic states rushed to come up with a response as Republicans in Texas continued their redistricting blitz to boost the number of red seats in the state. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries recently met with New York Governor Kathy Hochul to brainstorm potential countermeasures. The administration of California Governor Gavin Newsom met with state election authorities to discuss the scheduling and practicalities of a special election to remove the commission’s nonpartisan status. On Friday, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and Texas Democratic leaders met with Newsom to discuss a plan to derail the GOP’s audacious effort to create five additional seats in response to Trump’s demand.
The issue is that Democrats aren’t exactly flush with choices. According to over a dozen state legislators and redistricting specialists, Democrats have the greatest chance of succeeding in redrawing congressional districts in California, a state that is very blue and has a large number of them. Illinois is already a very pro-Democratic gerrymander, and New York, where Democratic gerrymandering attempts have stalled in recent years, is the second-best choice, in their opinion. The two states of New Jersey and Maryland, which together have four seats held by Republicans, present even less promising alternatives.
These choices are being considered amid heated internal party discussion over whether to adopt a Republican-style hardball stance.
House Majority Leader David Moon of Maryland stated, “At this moment, it seems very clear that self defense is something we have to put as a priority.” Moon also presented a measure this week that would open Maryland’s redistricting process to other states in the event that they pursue it before the U.S. Census. “If that’s the reality and the path we’re compelled to take, then I believe Democratic states should be ready to face that.”
In an aggressive attempt to redraw boundaries, Trump is pushing Republicans. The goal is to keep the House in a possibly hostile elections cycle. Trump has already begun the process of legally requiring redistricting in Texas in the hopes of adding five GOP seats, and in Ohio, Republicans are hoping to add more red districts via the same process. According to Punchbowl News, Trump is allegedly trying to get Missouri to remove its own map in the run-up to the midterm elections.
Republicans are optimistic about a midterms map altered by political redistricting, while the Democratic base is outraged by all of this.
“In an arms race where there’s a race to gerrymander the most, there’s no scenario where they have more seats than we do,” said a GOP strategist, who spoke on party strategy as an anonymous source.
Among the Democratic governors leading trifectas in their commitment to oppose Republicans in Texas, Newsom has been the most outspoken. On Friday, he vowed to “put a stake into the heart” of the Trump administration by ensuring that Republicans do not control the House.
There are two steep obstacles to redrawing the California map: either holding a special election and persuading voters to give politicians line-drawing power again after they explicitly voted to give it to a nonpartisan commission, or just having the legislature draw the maps and daring the courts to stop them.
It seems impossible to me. During his time as an employee of the partisan gerrymanders in California politics in the past, Stanford political scientist Bruce Cain expressed his belief that there are an excessive number of constitutional restrictions.
A legal hurdle isn’t the only thing it is. He claimed that redistricting would cause a “political fight” among party members as it would redraw districts that some politicians had ran in for several times. There would be a lot of complicated politics involved because “you’d be borrowing from different kinds of Democrats and sticking them into other seats,” Cain said.
Nonetheless, Newsom has been consistently preparing for a presidential candidacy in 2028. At a gathering with Democrats from Texas at the governor’s home in Sacramento on Friday, he did his bit to present a unified front against Republicans; he also informed reporters that he was considering other strategies to increase the margins of the Democratic Party beyond their present, lopsided control of 43 out of 52 House seats.
“What is the connection between the politics in California and those in Texas?” is probably what a lot of people in California are wondering. On Friday, with politicians from Texas by his side, Newsom spoke to media. “The answer is crucial.”
Those in California’s political sphere who were surprised or dubious of Newsom’s plan are now coming around to the idea that the state can and will respond similarly to Texas. A popular activity now is sharing maps that might show a Democratic gerrymander.
Matt Barreto, a pollster and head of UCLA’s Voting Rights Project, commented, “I’ve seen a map that’s legal, upholds the Voting Rights Act, and produces 49 to 50 Democratic seats.” Barreto had previously worked as an advisor to the Biden White House and polled for Harris. At present, forty Democrats and twelve Republicans represent California in the House of Representatives. Assuming Texas takes the lead, this is something that Congress should think about.
Two sources familiar with the matter claimed that personnel from Jeffries met with Hochul’s office in New York not long ago to discuss redistricting the state’s congressional districts. Hochul proclaimed on Thursday that “all’s fair in love and war” when it came to getting back to the controversial redistricting of representative districts.
All she would say is that she would consult with Hakeem Jeffries “if there are other states breaking the rules and trying to gain an advantage,” she said.
Redistricting is limited to once every ten years according to the state constitution, but even if lawmakers decide to move on with the process, it will take over a year to finish and could not be ready for the 2026 midterm elections.
In 2022, the courts stopped New York’s aggressive gerrymander, and a court-drawn map was utilized instead. A new, far more moderate map was then drawn by Democrats.
Those who support Hochul in politics think that creating new borders won’t accomplish much.
“I get it. People in New York are keeping an eye on what’s happening in Ohio and Texas, and they want to find a way to even things out,” New York Democratic Chair Jay Jacobs stated. It appears from the constitution that redistricting should occur every ten years. I fail to see how it could be construed as an annual or biannual task.
Republicans aren’t only targeting Texas; they’re also targeting states like Florida and Missouri, which would be problematic for Democrats since they don’t have nearly as much room to maneuver to gain seats.
When pressed by reporters earlier this week about his intentions for redistricting, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy remained noncommittal, saying that it’s “too early to make any definitive statement about it.” “Never bring a knife to a gunfight.” That being said, he did voice the sentiments of several other Democrats across over the prospect of early redistricting.
“Shall remain unaltered through the next year ending in zero in which a federal census for this State is taken.” This is according to New Jersey’s constitution, which specifies that congressional districts be created by an independent committee.
Two seats—the 7th, held by Republican Tom Kean Jr., and the 9th, held by Democratic Rep. Nellie Pou—are seen as potential hotspots, even if Democrats could find a way to sidestep the state constitution.
Some other last-ditch attempts don’t appear to be viable either. The recommendation that state legislators in Washington, Minnesota, and Colorado look into creating new maps over the next several months was met with resistance.