Anyone who has previously watched race Day coverage, or is looking forward to doing so in the fiercely contested 2024 race, has most likely seen anchors or analysts mention exit polls. But what are they, and how do they function?
Exit polls are surveys taken as voters leave polling stations on Election Day. Reaching voters at that time helps to ensure that those polled have actually voted. The exit poll results provide answers to critical questions such as who won and why. Exit polls reveal which issues were crucial in the election and how key demographic groups voted.
How are exit polls conducted?
Interviewers stand outside polling locations in randomly selected precincts across the country, approaching voters at certain intervals as they exit, such as every fifth or ninth voter.
Voters who agree to participate complete a brief, confidential questionnaire and deposit it in a ballot box.
Interviewers call in the results three times per day. When a voter refuses to participate, interviewers take note of their gender, estimated age, and race. This data is used to statistically alter the exit poll, ensuring that all votes are fairly represented in the final outcome.
What types of questions are asked in exit polls?
The exit poll questionnaire asks respondents who they voted for, their demographics, their thoughts on the candidates, and their views on significant subjects. Here’s an example of an earlier exit poll problem question from 2022:
Do you believe the state of the nation’s economy is:1. Excellent 2. Good 3. Not so great 4. Poor.
Are exit polls accurate?
Exit polls, like all surveys, are prone to sampling and non-sampling errors. Before reporting exit poll findings or making estimates, news media compare them to pre-election polls and voting histories in the precinct, and statisticians and political experts thoroughly evaluate the data.
To improve data accuracy, exit poll results are weighted using actual votes after the polls close. Exit polls can be used to predict the winner of races with a big margin between the candidates. However, most election estimates are done after the polls have closed, using real vote data.
How do exit polls account for those who vote early or by mail?
In the 2020 presidential election, approximately 70% of voters voted before Election Day via mail or early in-person voting. That figure is predicted to be over 60% by 2024.
Exit polls exclude individuals who vote before Election Day. However, including them in the data is necessary to have precise information about all voters.
Exit polls count those who vote absentee or early in two ways. The first involves holding multi-mode polls (phone, text, and email) among individuals who voted absentee or early. Second, in states with a high proportion of early in-person voters, exit surveys are performed in the weeks preceding Election Day when these voters depart early-voting polling locations. The data from the multi-mode polls and early-voter exit polls are integrated with the Election Day exit poll to create a comprehensive picture of all voters, regardless of when they voted.
When will the exit poll results be released?
On Election Day, any data derived from the early waves of exit poll data is strictly prohibited until 5 p.m. ET. By about 5:45 p.m. ET, some preliminary demographic information on voters and their perspectives on important election issues will be accessible on HeadlinesForever. After a state’s polls close, the complete exit poll crosstabs (data tables that show how different subgroups voted) will be uploaded on HeadlinesForever.com.
ABC News will not estimate a winner until the last scheduled poll close time in each state. If a race is not projected before poll close, it will be projected as soon as real vote data is available. Throughout the evening, information will be updated on HeadlinesForever.com and across all ABC News programs.