In order to bolster their position in next year’s midterm elections, Democrats are relying on the opposition to Republicans’ Medicaid cuts. The only catch is that the cutbacks have not taken place yet.
Work requirements and modifications to finance were postponed until 2027 and 2028, respectively, by Republicans. Additionally, they included tax cuts that people may expect to see sooner in their One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
“If we say ‘they took it from you,’ but it hasn’t happened yet, it just complicates it,” said Doug Herman, a Democratic strategist serving out of California.
This has some Democrats worried that the reaction against President Trump’s flagship legislation won’t reach the voters until November 2026, thwarting their plans to ride the wave of support for their platform in the following election.
A former state lawmaker from Kentucky named Cherlynn Stevenson is seeking the congressional seat being left vacant by Republican Rep. Andy Barr. “I do [worry about it],” she stated. “Some people may think, ‘Well, I’m not on Medicaid, so it’s not going to affect me.'”
However, Democrats will not back down from their plan to highlight the cuts to Medicaid that Republicans have proposed as a key component of their midterm campaign rhetoric. Many have already resorted to the same strategies that helped them win dozens of House seats in the 2018 elections, when they faced off against Republicans’ efforts to drastically slash taxes and nearly abolish the Affordable Care Act. The Democrats are aiming to gain ground this year by challenging Republican-held seats in redder states, such as Virginia, Florida, and Kentucky.
Reason being, some consequences, such as those experienced by rural hospitals that must account for longer timelines in their budgets, might be seen sooner rather than later, even though the majority of the pain was postponed for as long as feasible.
In rural Kentucky, where Stevenson is running for office, there are six hospitals that treat around 200,000 Medicaid patients and could be at risk of losing funding. Republicans’ health care cuts have prompted Democrats to hold a number of roundtable discussions throughout the state. However, they are aware that the cuts would have a more noticeable impact if they were already in place.
“Voters need to be reminded that the effects will be gradual, and that they won’t fully manifest until next year, or even after the midterms,” Stevenson stated. “We simply need to keep reminding them that the bill’s provisions are still on the way and that due dates are approaching.”
It won’t be until after the elections that the majority of the health care changes that Republicans included in their megabill would take effect. These cuts include, among other things, decreases to the so-called provider tax that states use to finance Medicaid and additional work requirements that may result in millions of people losing their coverage.
Republicans have hinted that they will attack Democrats by highlighting the bill’s popular provisions, such as a tax credit for gratuities.
The National Republican Campaign Committee’s Mike Marinella criticized the Democrats for their “desperate and disgusting fear-mongering tactics” and promised that the Republican Party will “use every tool to show voters that the provisions in this bill are widely popular.”
According to polls, people are getting conflicting messages about Medicaid. A monitoring study conducted by the nonprofit health policy group KFF reveals that 63% of independents hold the belief that the law will deprive individuals who are in need of health insurance of it. Interestingly, they also show strong support for including work restrictions into the program.
One expert, Ashley Kirzinger, of KFF’s Public Opinion and Survey Research Program, speculated that the modifications may have less significant political ramifications if Republicans could paint them as just fraud and waste.
Another possible stumbling block for Democrats: health care systems in various states go by different names, such as Medi-Cal in California, SoonerCare in Oklahoma, and Health First Colorado. This might lead some voters to believe that the cuts are coming from Republicans at the federal level, when in fact they are.
This year’s gubernatorial campaigns in Virginia and New Jersey will provide Democrats with an opportunity to test the waters with their Medicaid platform.
Democratic candidate for governor of New Jersey, Rep. Mikie Sherrill, has accused her opponent, Phil Murphy, of being “fully on board” with Republican budget cutbacks and has said that the next election in New Jersey is “the first chance to hold them accountable at the ballot box.” Murphy is serving a term that ends in 2020. Republicans are “counting on people not paying attention” to the bill’s effects, according to New Jersey Democratic strategist Laura Matos, who also cautioned Democrats from being mired down in national politics.
“Well, for Mikie, it’s kind of a fuzzy concept,” she explained. “You can broach the subject of national issues all you want, but what she ought to do is shift her focus to the local initiatives she intends to launch to raise living standards and decrease prices.”
However, there are some Democrats who are ignoring the idea that people won’t notice the bill’s effects by bringing out the extensive coverage of its cutbacks to Medicaid and the more immediate changes to the Affordable Care Act tax credits, which may significantly raise the cost of health insurance for certain Americans.
Running in a purple seat in Wisconsin, Rebecca Cooke criticized the situation, saying, “It’s the same cynical backdoor bullshit that we always see in Washington.” As a result of these cuts, “the message, honestly, is going to be coming from voters themselves.”
Additionally, before Medicaid is completely implemented, Republicans may change their verbiage on the program. Even though they voted for the megabill, some Republicans are already trying to veto its most severe elements, such as those that will affect rural hospitals negatively, such as revisions to the provider tax.
According to Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), Republicans would be wise not to cut Medicaid if they wish to avoid accusations of doing so, according to his remarks made at the Capitol on Wednesday.
In spite of this, Democrats will not back down from attacking Republicans on the issue of the vote.
“People are not stupid,” remarked Christina Bohannan, a former state representative from Iowa who is actively seeking reelection. “People are cognizant of the situation; thus, our only task is to clarify the outcome and ensure that individuals are held responsible for their votes.”