With the United States House of Representatives narrowly divided, fighting for Pennsylvania seats will be essential to chamber control in this year’s election, even though the state also has a significant impact on control of the White House and Senate.
The critical number of pickups is four for Democrats to seize control of the House, raising the stakes in each House battle.
In Pennsylvania, the parties began the year with five seats viewed as competitive, as Democrats defend their 9-8 edge in the state’s 17-member delegation.
The fact that Pennsylvania has one of the “Biden 16” — the 16 House districts around the country that President Joe Biden won in 2020 but are represented by Republicans — raises the stakes.
On the other side, Pennsylvania is home to one of the eight districts won by former President Donald Trump but represented by Democrats. Five of the Democrats are running for re-election.
According to Federal Election Commission filings, candidates and outside groups have contributed more than $60 million to the races, with the amount projected to rise dramatically before the polls close on November 5.
Republicans may have an opportunity to flip districts: Two incumbent Democrats won by less than 2.5 percentage points in 2022.
Here’s a look at the five major races:
First District
Four-term Republican U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Bucks County, just north of Philadelphia, is again a key target for Democrats. He is a member of the Biden 16.
Fitzpatrick, a mild-mannered former FBI agent who succeeded his late brother, has a strong winning formula that incorporates his family’s name recognition and inroads into typical Democratic electoral districts.
Top-tier labor unions and the AFL-CIO have endorsed him, and he is airing a digital ad claiming to be the “No. 1 most bipartisan congressman.”
His opponent is Ashley Ehasz, a former Army helicopter pilot whom he defeated in 2022 by over ten points.
Democrats have criticized Fitzpatrick’s vote for Trump’s tax cuts, resistance to Trump’s impeachment, and support for a 20-week abortion restriction in 2017.
Fitzpatrick is releasing an ad in which he says he supports abortion rights, notably Pennsylvania’s statute, which preserves the right to abortion until 24 weeks of gestation, the Roe v. Wade viability threshold, and highlights his votes to protect access to IVF and contraception.
Fitzpatrick has more than doubled Ehasz’s financing, and her campaign had not drawn any outside groups to spend money against her.
The 7th and 8th districts
Susan Wild, a three-term Democratic U.S. Representative, and Matt Cartwright, a six-term Democratic U.S. Representative, are both recurrent Republican targets in respective eastern Pennsylvania districts, but they have repeatedly defeated opponents, albeit by thin percentages.
Their campaigns are among the most expensive congressional contests in the state.
Cartwright has the distinction of being one of five Democrats standing for reelection in a district won by Trump in 2020, despite the fact that his 8th District seat contains Scranton, the city where Biden was born and which played a significant role in Biden’s successful presidential campaign.
Wild and Cartwright represent districts with similar geography: small cities, suburbs, and rural eastern Pennsylvania, including anthracite coal area. The districts are likewise similar in terms of the Democrats’ tight registration advantage over Republicans.
Challenging State Rep. Ryan Mackenzie represents Allentown’s 7th District. Wild outperformed Mackenzie about 7-to-1 until June 30.
Cartwright will be challenged by Rob Bresnahan, a first-time candidate and developer who owns a family construction company.
Cartwright outraised Bresnahan by more than two-to-one through June 30, with outside groups contributing more than $11 million, according to Federal Election Commission filings.
The Wild-Mackenzie race is not far behind, with outside parties spending more over $10 million on it, according to the filings.
Tenth District
Six-term Republican U.S. Rep. Scott Perry’s hard-right politics have made him a frequent target for Democrats in a Republican-leaning district centered on Harrisburg and York, which includes deep-red exurbs, rolling agricultural land, and rapidly rising suburbs.
Perry was the chairman of the Freedom Caucus, a hard-line conservative faction that wields enormous power in the GOP majority, and he was the only lawmaker whose cellphone was seized by FBI agents investigating the web of Trump loyalists who were central to the former president’s bid to remain in power following his 2020 reelection defeat.
Perry’s efforts to aid Trump have become more public after his last reelection in 2022. Perry’s efforts to elevate Jeffrey Clark to Trump’s acting attorney general were intended to alter the Department of Justice’s position that there was no proof of widespread voting fraud that might influence the election outcome.
Perry has not been charged with any crime.
Perry won reelection in 2022 by nearly eight points over a relatively weak opponent. This time, he’ll face Janelle Stelson, a well-known local TV news anchor.
Stelson carries her own baggage: she is a Republican-turned-Democrat who does not live in the district. Still, she has constantly criticized Perry for his opposition to abortion rights and his role in attempting to overturn the 2020 presidential election.
17th District
Democratic U.S. Rep. Chris Deluzio is being challenged in his western Pennsylvania district by state Rep. Rob Mercuri, but the campaign hasn’t received as much attention as others.
Deluzio, a freshman, outraised Mercuri roughly three-to-one until June 30, and the contest has received little attention from outside groups.
Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 4-3 in the district, which includes Pittsburgh’s western suburbs as well as former steel cities along the Ohio River in Allegheny County and Beaver County.