“Political Calculation”: The Real Reason House Republicans Abandoned Their Medicaid Strategy

House Republicans are facing pushback from more moderate Republicans who are against dismantling almost free health care coverage for their voters at home, so they are restraining themselves from cutting Medicaid as much as they had planned as part of their massive tax cut package.

Considering that the impartial Congressional Budget Office released a fresh analysis on Wednesday estimating that millions of Americans will lose Medicaid coverage under the many Republican plans being floated as cost-saving measures, this is rather concerning. To make up for the money they’ll lose collecting $4.5 trillion in taxes, Republicans in the House are scrimping and saving to slash as much as $1.5 trillion from various federal programs, including food stamps, health care, and others.

Medicaid enrollment would fall and the number of uninsured would rise under all of those scenarios, according to the CBO research.

President Trump has set a self-imposed Memorial Day deadline for the passage of his “big, beautiful bill,” and the results have cast further doubt on House Speaker Mike Johnson’s capacity to meet that goal.

There is a rising sense of economic unease among lawmakers as a result of Trump’s actions, such as the trade war, which is causing communities throughout the country to fear increased prices, empty stores, and job losses. The GOP-priority of extending tax cuts, which were initially passed in 2017 and are set to expire later this year, is at the heart of the plan. To offset these costs and stem the tide of the nation’s mounting debt and deficits, however, they propose cutting other programs.

As a handful of Republicans, led by moderates in some of the nation’s most hotly fought congressional districts, have been quietly meeting with Johnson in the speaker’s office at the Capitol all week to discuss the impending significant budget cutbacks that would affect their districts.

The results were quickly exploited by Democrats, who had asked for the CBO analysis.

Republican Medicaid plans would lead to millions of Americans losing health insurance, according to a non-partisan Congressional Budget Office research that was requested by Democratic senator Ron Wyden of Oregon and House Democratic congressman Frank Pallone of New Jersey.

Republicans in the House who left a conference late Tuesday night hinted that Johnson and GOP leadership were abandoning some of the most contentious adjustments to the federal matching payment rates given to the states for Medicaid.

Those reforms to Medicaid “are dead,” according to New Jersey Republican Rep. Jeff Van Drew.

The fact that Trump has publicly stated his opposition to Medicaid cuts was brought to the attention of New York Republican Representative Nick LaLota. He stated that Republicans are more in agreement that other programs should take the hit instead of Medicaid.

According to LaLota, some additional suggestions include making Medicaid enrollees work, increasing the number of times a year that beneficiaries must verify their status, and excluding undocumented immigrants from getting financial assistance.

Conservative Republicans, such as those in the House Freedom Caucus, are fighting to keep deficits from exploding due to the tax cuts, and they are demanding deeper cutbacks.

The federal government and the individual states work together to administer Medicaid, a program that covers 71 million individuals.

Reducing the federal government’s portion for participants’ health care—in some cases it’s as high as 90%—is one of many ideas being considered by Republicans to reduce expenditure on the program.

Another proposal that seems to be losing traction in Congress is limiting the amount of money the federal government can spend on Medicaid beneficiaries.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that while these changes would save billions of dollars, they would also cause around 10 million individuals to lose their Medicaid coverage.

Looks like they’re not on the table anymore.

Republicans are still considering more changes to Medicaid, such as limiting state taxes on healthcare providers that get greater federal payments. The analysis stated that while this would save billions of dollars, it might lead to almost 8 million individuals losing their health insurance.

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