Biden administration officials are hailing Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s death at the hands of Israel Defense Forces as a triumph of justice over evil, as well as a critical opportunity to end the war in Gaza by resuming negotiations aimed at securing a cease-fire and the release of the enclave’s remaining hostages.
Even though American diplomats say Sinwar’s death removes a key impediment to reconciliation, they concede that negotiators still face a difficult task ahead.
A power vacuum in Gaza.
On Friday, Hamas acknowledged Sinwar’s death but pledged to continue fighting in his absence, reiterating its position that no hostages will be released until there is a cease-fire in Gaza and all Israeli troops have been gone.
The militant group’s stance on this may be determined by who eventually succeeds Sinwar, but experts say there is also an opportunity in the turmoil raging through its ranks.
“The chaos within Hamas following Sinwar’s death may provide a chance to exploit uncertainties and divisions to expedite the release of the remaining Israeli hostages and the implementation of a general stand-down and demobilization within Hamas,” Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, a resident senior fellow with the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, told HeadlinesForever.
“Israel, Arab nations and the United States should now offer mass amnesty for remaining Hamas members who lay down their arms and stop fighting,” he tweeted. “They should also offer financial rewards to those who either turn in Israeli hostages or provide information leading to the whereabouts of remaining abductees.”
Jon B. Alterman, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Middle East Program, sees possibilities in the turbulence, but cautions that Hamas’ chaos will hamper diplomatic attempts in the short term.
“The battle in Gaza has not ended, but it has entered a new phase. Hamas will be fragmented as a combat force, with some elements wanting to escalate bloodshed while others seeking to maintain options for the future,” he warned.
“Sinwar seemed adamantly opposed to compromise, therefore his death makes some form of solution more likely. At the same time, the lack of a single legitimate Hamas leader will make it difficult to persuade some factions of the organization to agree to a cease-fire,” Alterman added.
U.S. officials anticipate that it will take days, if not weeks, for mediators to fully diplomatically reengage with Hamas as the group resolves its internal issues, but that who is finally chosen as Sinwar’s replacement could be significant.
If Sinwar is replaced by his brother and right-hand man, Mohammed, they anticipate the gang to maintain its tough stance. However, experts feel that the promotion of a high-ranking official inside Hamas’ political branch could be a good indication for the future of discussions.
What will Netanyahu do next?
Of course, implementing a cease-fire in Gaza requires not only Hamas’ assistance, but also that of the Israeli government.
Following Sinwar’s death, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that his country had demonstrated “the victory of good over evil” to the world, but that the war “is not over yet.”
Communications between the United States and Israel were largely celebratory in the aftermath of Sinwar’s death, but officials said President Joe Biden did lay the groundwork for what is expected to be a strong push by the administration to persuade Israel to focus on what it commonly refers to as “the day after” the Gaza conflict during his call with Netanyahu on Thursday.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken is also anticipated to make a strong sale to Israeli authorities during his trip to the Middle East in the coming days, and the State Department has committed to press the country’s leadership to make the “tough decisions” needed to negotiate a cease-fire in Gaza.
However, whether Netanyahu recognizes the merits of such a pact remains to be seen.
Ghaith al-Omari, a senior scholar at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, described Netanyahu’s words following Sinwar’s death as “conflicting messages” and claimed that the ambiguity could imperil the detainees’ return.
“Unless there is clarity from Israel right now, while things are still hot, we might miss this opportunity,” added the diplomat.
According to al-Omari, “key constituencies” in Israel, including the military establishment, support a “political initiative” involving a cease-fire in Gaza, the release of captives, and the start of post-war discussions. Nonetheless, hardliners feel Israel should maintain its advantage in Gaza and continue military operations with Sinwar dead and the terrorist organization weakened.
According to al-Omari, the Biden administration’s public optimism about the prospects for a cease-fire agreement at this critical juncture is, at least in part, an attempt to persuade Netanyahu to embrace diplomacy.