Even though the election isn’t until November, Democrats in Virginia still think Abigail Spanberger will lose the campaign for governor.
Her margins might wind up being narrow due to the bad connotations associated with the Democratic Party, and the former congresswoman runs the danger of being weighed down by the widespread disapproval of the party.
The Democratic Party, however, is holding out hope that Spanberger will be able to transcend this national trend. Thanks to President Trump’s controversial policies, she was able to win over voters in a difficult district in 2018 that includes parts of rural Southwest Virginia. His erratic trade policies, together with the planned cuts to Medicaid and the loss of thousands of government jobs, have been met with widespread opposition in the Commonwealth. The opponent, Spanberger’s opponent—a candidate that even some Republicans are cringing at—has considerably less money and far less name recognition than she has.
The Republicans in Congress may be frightened into action by Trump’s aggressive agenda if the Democrats pull off a decisive victory this fall. The party can then use this victory as a springboard to keep their focus on issues that are close to home, such as economic uncertainty and federal budget cuts, which they can use to their advantage in next year’s midterm elections.
“If we can get these people to vote we’re going to smoke them,” said Don Scott, speaker of the Virginia House of Delegates. We must ensure that they cast their ballots. Apathy is the dread.
Spanberger, in an interview with reporters last week before a campaign event in the Hampton Roads battleground region, dismissed the idea that her campaign is receiving widespread attention. To her, the operation’s focus on Virginia and its “issues and priorities that matter here” made it “totally grounded.”
She addressed a crowded event in Norfolk, which was organized to launch her affordability agenda, which aims to reduce the costs of health care and prescription drugs. She stated, “If that ends up setting a good example for other people running other places, then that’s their choice.” The event was attended by local elected officials, donors, and supporters. She has future plans to alleviate further financial burdens on Virginians.
Among the six Democrats vying for the office of lieutenant governor, state senator Aaron Rouse said that Democrats would have an easier time winning over the more conservative regions of Southwest and Central Virginia if they campaigned on strong platforms supporting public schools, affordable housing, and rural hospitals. “Spanberger is doing everything right so far,” he stated.
While her opponent, Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, was unable to raise more than $3.1 million due to fundraising restrictions imposed by state law during the previous legislative session, Spanberger was able to amass $6.7 million in the first quarter.
Preliminary results indicate that Spanberger has a solid lead: More than half of those who took part in the recent poll by Roanoke College think the nation is heading in the wrong direction, and she held a seventeen point advantage. The lead was narrowed to four points for Spanberger in a different survey.
The Democratic Party has been working to change the public’s poor perception of its leaders, which may be a problem for Spanberger’s candidacy. A morale boost and direction for the elections are in the cards for national Democrats if Spanberger can win over voters outside of blue Northern Virginia by persuasively addressing problems that affect everyday life.
A key part of Spanberger’s campaign platform is her intention to reduce prices, with the Republican governor of Virginia, Glenn Youngkin, and Trump both being held responsible for the rising cost of living. As a result of Trump’s DOGE cutbacks, which hit Virginia’s strong federal workforce particularly hard, Democrats are feeling bullish heading into the state’s off-year elections, which are seen as a reflection on the party in power in Washington.
The state is expected to lose almost 9,000 government positions, according to a recent research from the University of Virginia. This news has state authorities concerned about the employment situation.
The broad political milieu that you’re in is created by Trump, according to Democratic strategist Ben Tribbett of Virginia. “When people are unhappy with the actions of the Trump administration, she’s done a decent job of riding that wave and drawing more people into the party.”
How much Democrats can rely on Trump’s dismantling of the federal government as a motivating issue in the elections may be revealed by November turnout. The Democrats in Virginia are certain that Elon Musk’s unpopularity will endure long after his term as a special government employee ends. They cite the layoffs of contractors and employees from the Department of Defense in the more competitive Hampton Roads area as proof that the outrage over DOGE is not confined to the northern region of the state.
Youngkin has justified the budget cutbacks by saying they are essential for cutting wasteful spending in government, and he has urged unemployed Virginians to look for work elsewhere in the state. In order to help former government employees find new jobs, his administration has launched a website. April audio of Earle-Sears saying “we don’t want people to lose their jobs” while downplaying layoffs surfaced online.
According to Peyton Vogel, the press secretary for the Earle-Sears campaign, “Abigail Spanberger is dusting off the same worn-out playbook that cost Democrats the governor’s mansion in 2021.” This comment refers to the time when Youngkin beat Democrat Terry McAuliffe. At the time, Virginians choose a leader who could really implement policies to lower living costs and advance the Commonwealth, rather than one who spread fear. Spanberger’s present approach was unsuccessful back then, and it won’t work this time either.
For Democrats who lean toward centralism, Spanberger is the perfect choice to reaffirm their position. In 2018, she became the latest member of the wave of women elected to Congress riding the anti-Trump energy wave, succeeding in an upset over Tea Party member Dave Brat. However, Trump’s popularity has skyrocketed during his first term, so winning back his supporters will be an important aspect of his recovery plan.
Spanberger emphasized her record of voting bipartisanly while serving in Congress in her first campaign commercial, which was published this week. After Democrats were on the verge of losing the House in 2022, she was heard on leaked tape scolding them for supporting policies that would defund the police and telling them to “never use the word socialism again.”
“Her biggest vulnerability is being a Democrat in this moment, but she is sufficiently defining herself as a different kind of Democrat,” said Matt Bennett, co-founder of the center-left group Third Way. Her goal is to avoid repeating our mistakes from 2024 by being focused on the issues that matter to voters and avoiding distractions from those that do not.
For Democrats, Trump’s ideas revolve around Hampton Roads, a key battleground that Spanberger must conquer. Along with layoffs at DOGE, the nearby Port of Virginia is also preparing for a drop in cargo from other important trade partners.
The United States’ northern neighbors also go there for vacations. Democrat Michael Feggans, who is vying for reelection in a highly contested state legislative campaign in Virginia Beach, has heard from business owners in the area who are worried about a drop in Canadian visitors, who are irritated by Trump’s comments about annexation. In an effort to increase their slim one-seat majority in the state House, Democrats are taking Spanberger’s economic platform and running with it.
“He promised from the start that he would bring global peace and fix prices, but all that has happened is confusion, chaos, and fear,” Feggens remarked.
But Republicans in Virginia are counting on DOGE being completely forgotten by the time November rolls around. Republicans in this camp are doubtful that Spanberger’s criticism of Trump will reach anyone outside of the Democratic base, and they are adamant that Spanberger must win over receptive voters.
“Her entire message seems to be: Trump sucks,” said a Republican operative who preferred to remain anonymous in order to participate freely. “When it comes down to the nitty-gritty, people want to know what you’re going to do.”