Even with Donald Trump’s endorsement, House Speaker Mike Johnson faces a tough fight to keep the gavel, a test of the president-elect’s power over his party in the face of an extraordinarily tiny majority.
Trump’s backing might help Johnson regain support, especially after the speaker negotiated a messy government funding battle earlier this month that enraged his right wing. With a historically small majority in the new Congress, Johnson can only afford one Republican defection when the House selects a new speaker on Friday, assuming every member votes.
And one House Republican, Rep. Thomas Massie, has already stated that he will not vote for Johnson. The Kentucky Republican told HEADLINESFOREVER on Monday that Trump’s endorsement did not alter his stance.
One source told HEADLINESFOREVER that members were preparing for Trump’s endorsement. However, the same source cautioned that it may not be enough. For the time being, Johnson’s backers are keeping a tight eye on members who have not yet pledged their support.
In addition to Trump’s endorsement, any Republican holdouts may face pressure from Johnson loyalists on the potential consequences for the future president if the House does not immediately install a speaker.
Congress has never attempted to certify a presidential election without a House speaker, and Republicans throughout Washington are quietly debating what would happen if that scenario occurred.
According to many sources, Republican lawmakers and senior aides have found no apparent way to recognize Trump’s victory in the absence of a speaker. Some Johnson backers are now using that as part of their case for why on-the-fence GOP legislators should back the current speaker.
“To reject Johnson now undermines the GOP while strengthening Hakeem Jeffries. It also jeopardizes the Electoral College Certification, which was slated on January 6. “These people serve as a ‘fifth column’ for the Democrats,” Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon told HEADLINESFOREVER.
Johnson’s allies conduct a comprehensive whip operation.
Johnson’s deputies have undertaken an extensive whip operation in recent weeks, but the task of getting Johnson to 218 votes – the magic number required to win the gavel – remains daunting.
One Republican member familiar with the outreach told HEADLINESFOREVER that, while the vast majority of GOP members understand how “monumentally stupid” it would be to have a lengthy speaker’s debate, not every member is persuaded by the argument that the party must be united before the inauguration.
“A vast majority of Republicans are rational, but not every member of the Republican conference is rational,” the critic said.
Prior to Trump’s support, a HEADLINESFOREVER tally of members revealed that almost a dozen others had yet to commit to Johnson.
Trump announced on Monday that Johnson had his “complete” and “total” endorsement.
“The American people require immediate relief from all of the disastrous policies of the previous administration. Speaker Mike Johnson is a wonderful, hardworking, devout man. He will do the right thing, and we will continue to win. Mike gets my complete and total endorsement. “MAGA!!!,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
The great shadow hanging Johnson’s speaker race is Trump certification.
Former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz, who has previously struggled with Johnson and his leadership team, advised that his former colleagues support the current speaker rather than risk Trump’s certification as president.
“We could never have forced McCarthy to make compromises two years ago if a Trump nomination was on the line. “Now, it does,” Gaetz said on X, calling Johnson’s objections “futile.”
While the speaker plays no official role in certifying the results, the House must be called into session. Without a speaker, the House can only vote to elect a speaker, recess, or adjourn. Lawmakers cannot be sworn in or set the House’s rules.
“You’re literally just stuck in a cyclical pattern of speaker votes with the clerk overseeing,” one Republican source said, outlining what would happen if there was no speaker at the start of a new Congress.
And, unlike during the House’s previous speaker-less crisis in 2023, there will be no interim leader ready to take over. When former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was deposed, Rep. Patrick McHenry took over as speaker pro tempore since he was McCarthy’s first choice when he took the gavel. However, in the 119th Congress, a speaker must be chosen before appointing a pro tempore.
Some Republicans are secretly contemplating how to push the procedural restrictions so that Congress may certify Trump’s victory without a leader. One participant described a “emergency break glass option” in which the House may vote to convene a special session. Many institutionalist Republicans, however, would find this difficult to accept.
Another alternative being discussed unofficially in Washington is pushing the date of Trump’s certification.
“There is no constitutional mandate that it has to be on January 6,” another GOP source said, as long as it occurs before January 20, the day of the inauguration.
Johnson’s supporters insist he will keep his gavel on Friday and is working hard to secure votes ahead of the vote. Republicans and Democrats alike are wondering what will happen to certification if the House remains without a speaker three days later.
When asked about the potential repercussions of certification, one Republican lawmaker who is assisting Johnson in whipping votes for January 3 remarked, “When you don’t have a speaker, it impacts thousands of the important tasks of governing.” “Clearly the whip team is aware that not having a speaker is a problem for lots of reasons.”
Johnson risks conservative ire after the spending fight.
After Johnson reached an agreement with Democrats on spending in mid-December, Trump added a last-minute demand to extend the debt ceiling, leaving Johnson scrambling for a backup plan. A new GOP plan ultimately failed to get enough Republican votes to succeed, prompting complaints among Johnson’s right wing that the speaker was not up to the task. It also raised the question of whether Trump would stick with Johnson ahead of the speaker fight.
Massie stated earlier this month that he did not intend to support Johnson in the speaker’s election. In reaction to Trump’s endorsement, Massie wrote on X, “I admire and support President Trump, but his endorsement of Mike Johnson will be about as effective as his endorsement of Speaker Paul Ryan. Johnson has partnered with Democrats to send money to Ukraine, authorize surveillance on Americans, and squander the budget.
Another issue is that the House Freedom Caucus, which includes some of the members who are most opposed to Johnson’s reelection, has yet to issue a uniform list of demands, resulting in a situation in which each member acts somewhat as a free agent.
Some members are concerned about how the party would reintroduce individual expenditure legislation aimed at reducing the country’s debt and deficit. That could be tough, considering that House Republicans have repeatedly demonstrated that they lack the votes to approve all 12 budget bills with only Republican votes. Not to mention that Republicans will continue to need Democratic votes to keep the government funded even under a Trump administration, as Republicans lack the 60 votes required in the Senate to pass measures on their own.
Johnson has also stated that he is unwilling to reduce the number of members required to force a vote to unseat a speaker, despite the GOP conference’s agreement to raise the bar. As part of a conference-wide negotiation in November, Republicans resolved to raise the number of members required to trigger a vote on the motion to vacate from one to nine. According to a person familiar with Johnson’s thinking, the speaker believes he cannot reverse course on what he regards as a conference-negotiated position.
When former Speaker Kevin McCarthy went 15 rounds to win the speaker’s gavel in 2023, he eventually caved to conservative demands to lower the threshold for a motion to vacate to a single member, which led to his removal.