The conflict between Israel and Hamas has polarized Joe Biden’s Democratic base. As a whole, the public views the president’s handling of the crisis with disapproval.
The public protests against the war in Gaza remind some, even those in Biden’s own party, of the protests that occurred during the Vietnam War. Some people saw it as a flashback to the anti-apartheid struggle in South Africa in the 1980s, when the White government was heavily criticized.
Despite all the challenges Biden has in his reelection campaign, recent polls show that domestic tensions and the war in the Middle East will not be the deciding factors in the 2024 race.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not going to be the deciding factor for many Americans. Just 7% of people indicated they would support or oppose candidates based on their war views in a recent NBC News poll. Between 19% and 28% of voters selected abortion, safeguarding democracy or constitutional rights, and immigration or border security as their top three replies. That’s a far cry from it.
When asked to identify the most pressing national issue, the results of a recent Gallup poll were very similar. Very few people (2% to be exact) mentioned the Israel-Hamas conflict or any other Middle Eastern war when asked about it. Of all the responses, that came in at number seventeen. At 27%, immigration ranked first.
Just 2% of people surveyed, including those under the age of 35, ranked the Israel-Hamas conflict as the most pressing issue. Inflation, at 16%, was the biggest issue for this category.
A divisive conflict
When President Lyndon B. Johnson dropped out of the race for reelection in 1968 due to the Vietnam War, things were very different. In those days, over 40% of Americans consistently ranked Vietnam as the top issue. There was not a single other issue that received a similarly high rating.
Nearly half of all respondents (44%) ranked the Vietnam War as the most pressing issue in the last Gallup survey conducted before the 1968 presidential election. Among those respondents, 45 percent were under the age of 35.
It should be noted that the present Israel-Hamas confrontation does not involve American troops on the ground, in contrast to the Vietnam War.
The fact that Biden’s overall job approval ratings are around 40% is hardly shocking, considering how low the war in Gaza is on most Americans’ priorities. These numbers were around 40% when the fighting began in October.
Similarly to early October, Biden’s position vis-Ã -vis the expected Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump, is relatively unchanged. Both are in a virtual tie for the national lead, with Trump possibly pulling ahead slightly if the surveys are aggregated.
As one might expect, Biden faces opposition from a younger demographic that is more inclined to disagree with his stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict. In comparison to his 2020 performance, Biden lags significantly when averaging current polling of individuals under the age of 30 or 35 (depending on the poll). At the end of the national surveys in 2020, he was 29 points ahead of Trump among younger voters. He has an average lead of around 5 points today.
That drop in support is barely partially attributable to Biden’s handling of the conflict. The president’s issues with young voters were evident even before the war broke out, which is why I say that. Prior to the issue escalating, he had an average 11-point lead over Trump in polls, which was 18 points lower than the final 2020 polls.
Potential reaction danger
Any decline in Biden’s popularity relative to Trump could swing the election in Trump’s favor.
But if Biden tries to win over the youth vote, he runs the danger of losing over the older votes as well. While some have drawn comparisons between the current student protests and the anti-apartheid movement of the 1980s, the polls don’t support this theory.
The majority of people in 1985 felt that the Black people of South Africa, and not the White-led apartheid regime, were in the right. A majority of Americans (64% to be exact) expressed greater empathy for the Black South African populace in a recent survey by ABC News. White House was chosen by only 13%.
The United States of America is more sympathetic to Israelis than Palestinians in the ongoing war. The margin was 51% to 27% in a Gallup poll conducted in February. Quinnipiac University found a 43% to 30% margin in March.
Coinciding with Biden’s slight drop in support among those under the age of 35 since early October, there is a 50% to 31% increase in the likelihood that those under this age group empathize with the Palestinians.
However, compared to the gap that existed forty years before, this one is far more equitable. An ABC News survey conducted in 1985 found that among Americans under the age of 35, 76% felt sympathy for the Black South African population, while only 10% felt the same way toward the White-led government.
The current situation in the Middle East has put Biden in an awkward position. He could win over more pro-Palestinian votes, but he risks alienating those who are more pro-Israel. He might also maintain his current course of action and see his support among younger voters dwindle.
It will not be easy for Biden to defeat Trump in 2024, as will be the case with many other aspects of that race.