Ever since he took office, people have been curious as to whether or not former President Donald Trump possesses the “Midas touch” when it comes to backing political candidates. The media’s obsession with Trump’s endorsements, some say, has gone too far. From the few, occasionally clumsy selections he made during his first few months in office, we have gone a long way.
Since becoming president, Trump has endorsed more candidates for the Senate, House of Representatives, and governorships than in the previous cycle, and his candidate vetting process has grown significantly more sophisticated and professional. In this election campaign specifically, Trump’s endorsements have acquired a more profound significance. The days of the GOP committees in DC handing out endorsements with care and disregard for ideological purity are over. More so than in the past, establishment Republican groups have essentially given Trump free reign to promote his candidates this year. All other endorsements have become nearly outdated due to the former president’s endorsement procedure, which has gone from haphazard to sharp and effective. It’s another proof that the Republican Party has become Trump’s party.
The consequences of Trump’s attempts to influence the Republican Party’s trajectory and the candidates it endorsed were uneventful upon taking office. According to data compiled by 538, just 19 non-incumbent candidates in contested primaries for the Senate, House, and governor received Trump’s endorsement in 2018. Out of those, 17 (or 89 percent) were victorious in their respective races. Ballotpedia reports that of the 95 candidates Trump backed in that year’s general election, barely 59% (56 out of 95) were victorious. Although Trump’s influence as president was undeniable, he was merely one of numerous rival interest groups within the Republican Party that could endorse candidates back then. Trump received fewer endorsements overall than more establishment Republican organizations, such as the Club for Growth and the National Republican Congressional Committee.
However, Trump began sponsoring more people in the 2020 cycle, and those candidates began to win more frequently. With a success percentage of 98 percent, the 113 candidates for governor, Senate, and House who received the then-president’s endorsements during the primaries either won or progressed to the general election. Having endorsed candidates who were either running unopposed or had a good chance of winning contributed to it. For challenged contests involving non-incumbent candidates, nevertheless, he still managed an outstanding batting average of 96% (24 out of 25).
That was the initial indication that Trump’s endorsement campaign was becoming more deliberate; yet, it was only after he departed office that it became genuinely professionalized. Trump bolstered his political team and made smart appointments to assist with endorsements in the years leading up to the 2022 midterms. As a result, Trump changed the way he endorses candidates. He started doing so earlier than before, offering his support to more candidates in close primaries and offering his thoughts on races further down the ballot.
During that cycle, he was more generous with his endorsements than in any previous cycle. A remarkable 181 out of 190 (or 95 percent) of the 190 candidates that Trump supported in the 2022 primary were either elected or advanced to the general election for the Senate, House of Representatives, or governor. However, his success rate for non-incumbents in contested primaries was far lower, coming in at just 82% (37 out of 45). Not only that, but both figures were down from 2020 levels. However, there’s a valid explanation for this: prior to the emergence of a clear front-runner, Trump was taking more risks by intervening in competitive contests. Even more so, he began supporting incumbents’ primary challenges in 2022, which is never an easy task. Despite this, 60% of them were successful.
With 84% of his endorsees winning their campaigns in 2022, Trump also had his best success percentage for general election endorsements, according to Ballotpedia. Oh, and keep in mind that Republicans didn’t exactly romp to victory in the 2022 midterms; that was just Trump’s improved knack for selecting victors.
Five hundred thirty-eight states had primaries through September 10th, and Trump endorsed 199 candidates for governor, Senate, and House of Representatives. This was slightly more than in 2022, and the most candidates he has ever endorsed in a cycle, according to data compiled by 538. Nearly all of them (n=191) made it to the general election or won. Of Trump’s endorsements, only eight were unsuccessful. However, it should be mentioned that out of those eight, four—Blake Masters in Arizona’s 8th District, Tiffany Smiley in Washington’s 4th District, and Jay Ashcroft and Bill Eigel in the Missouri governor’s race—lost to another Trump endorsee, as Trump backed multiple candidates in those races, which is essentially the ultimate record-padding move.
But looking at non-incumbents in fought primaries alone doesn’t paint a very favourable picture of Trump’s performance. Trump continued his 82% winning streak from 2022 with 37 of the 45 backed candidates this year, all of whom either won or proceeded to the general election. The fact that Trump has stuck to his early endorsement strategy, taken more daring swings, and even endorsed many people in the same race shows how well-coordinated his plan has grown.
Because of this, getting Trump’s stamp of approval is the ultimate goal of Republican campaign strategists. Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky, who was up against an opponent in 2020, even went to the extent of purchasing West Palm Beach billboard space in the hopes of catching Trump’s attention (Trump did not take a stance in that race, but Massie did win). Not only did three of Trump’s main opponents in the 2022 Ohio election try to woo the former president, but even his running partner, Senator JD Vance, attempted the same. Getting Trump’s endorsement was a game-changer for Vance; he had been in third place before the endorsement, but he went on to win the primary and the general election.
According to Republican nominee for Georgia’s 3rd District and former Trump campaign consultant Brian Jack, who received Trump’s endorsement, the endorsement changed the tide for his campaign. He was polling at about 1% in his district before Trump endorsed him, according to Jack. In the primary, he received 47% of the vote; in the runoff, he received 63% and was named the winner.
“The combination of President Trump’s endorsement and a well-run campaign with an America First platform is unstoppable in a Republican primary,” he added. “It is the most powerful endorsement in American politics.”
In contrast, establishment GOP organizations have been steadily giving up ground when it comes to endorsements. Candidates who had reached specific fundraising and message goals and gained the support of the NRCC in close races would be unveiled one class at a time in previous cycles as part of the program’s “Young Guns” initiative. Case in point: the 2018 midterms had their initial class advertised over a year in advance. Ten of the twenty-six candidates for this year’s election had already won Trump’s endorsement before July even began; Trump endorsed one more candidate in the following week, and the other candidates were either in uncontested races or were running against each other. For the first time in a decade, the National Republican Senatorial Committee is backing candidates in the Republican primary. However, their picks, like Arizona’s Kari Lake, tend to lean further toward the MAGA camp than they could have otherwise.
A portion of Trump’s endorsement success can be explained by, basically, padding his record, as we’ve discussed previously at 538. It’s safe to back an incumbent who isn’t up for reelection, and Trump often backs people with strong establishment support anyhow. The GOP establishment took a political gamble by giving the previous president so much influence during the coronation, and that’s in part because of that. Such risk-taking by Trump often backfires; for example, in the 2022 Pennsylvania Senate election, he supported TV host Mehmet Oz against former hedge fund CEO David McCormick, who was widely considered as the superior candidate.
However, there is no negative aspect for Trump. His endorsement process has become more automated, which has only served to fortify his position and further cement the GOP’s great Trumpification. Whether the candidates he supports win or lose is now less important. As a result of his support and the party’s subsequent alignment, Trump has effectively taken control of the Republican Party.