In 2024, Black voters were overwhelmingly in favor of President Trump. Conservative Black operatives, however, are sounding the alarm that Republicans would be foolish to assume that their Black constituents will vote Republican in the elections.
Even though the majority of Black people still lean Democratic, Black conservatives believe that 2026 presents a great chance for their community to capitalize on Trump’s popularity and rebrand conservatism for a generation of Black voters who are growing dissatisfied with the status quo.
Party efforts to secure gains made under Trump’s administration have not yet come to fruition, though.
Even while Republicans claim they don’t want to, I can’t help but wonder if they aren’t already catering to Black voters. Without a doubt,” stated Harrison Fields, a former White House spokesperson and Trump campaign advisor.
He elaborated by saying that this would entail going into heavily Black neighborhoods such as the Bronx, Chicago, and other Black Democratic strongholds, just like Trump did in his 2024 campaign.
“I think showing up is going to be something that matters, and not just showing up at election time,” he added, alluding to a typical issue that Democrats deal with when trying to engage Black voters. If we simply turn up now, we can take advantage of a lot of great chances.
Trump increased his lead among Black voters from 8% in 2023 to 15% in 2024, according to a verified voter survey by Pew Research. In a pre-election Pew survey, members of the voting bloc ranked economic and health care concerns highest, with racial and ethnic disparity coming in at number three.
According to Fields, Republicans would do better with a younger generation of Black voters who haven’t consistently supported Democratic their entire lives, and the party should focus on the generational difference within the Black community.
“Black voters have been conservative their entire lives,” stated Fields, who just became a member of the Republican lobbying and public relations department at CGCN. “However, this strategy exploits Black voters’ emotions to make them oblivious to their fundamental principles—the idea that one political party can solve the system’s inequalities and level the playing field, or even completely turn it upside down.”
Although Democrats have historically had success appealing to Black voters’ concerns about racial justice and equality, Fields said that in 2024, younger Black voters were swayed by Trump’s economic message.
The economy was ranked as the top concern by 61% of young Black voters in a pre-election study of minority voters in battleground states, according to Democratic pollster Hart Research.
“It is my belief that a large portion of the Democratic Party holds the belief that the 1965 movement can serve as a magnet for new members,” Fields stated. “Although there are many Black Americans who dwell on the past, it’s clear that many of them have never experienced the real injustices that our great-grandparents endured, such as racism and segregation.”
According to the consultants, the Republican Party has always had trouble winning over Black people and keeping them as supporters, despite the widening gap between generations. The party has always prioritized appealing to white working class voters.
‘The Black community is going to go out and vote for Democrats at an alarming rate and we don’t really have a chance, so let’s not even get out there,’ the GOP approached it historically, according to Quenton Jordan, vice president of the Black Conservative Federation.
According to Jordan, that all changed in 2020 when Trump started courting Black voters, an effort that Trump had been more vocal about during his campaign four years earlier.
According to Camilla Moore, head of the Georgia Black Republican Council, Republicans should target Black males under the age of 45 in the next midterm elections. This is because this age group frequently identifies with the party’s historic ideals.
Having a sense of masculinity is appealing to young Black males, according to Moore. “They like the thought of striking out on their own, being their own boss, and deciding how their lives play out.”
She continued by saying that Republicans running for office should stress the value of typical two-parent households and the policies they want to pass to encourage Black business ownership.
Trump may have won over Black voters, but there are indications that his victory won’t last.
According to a September survey by Fox News, 77% of Black voters are unhappy with Trump’s performance as president, while according to a poll tracker by Decision Desk, Trump’s approval rating among Black Americans is about 70%.
“The numbers don’t mean Black voters will swing back for Democrats next November,” Fields added. Plus, he stated that he would like Black voters to remain at home rather than cast ballots for the other party if given the option.
“If staying on the couch and not showing up is the best we can do right now— then that’s a win,” Fields remarked, adding that their team needs more points than the opposing side.
Democrats have mostly ignored the Republican boldness when it comes to Black voters, pointing out that Trump’s approval ratings are falling and that the majority of Black Americans voted for Democrats.
Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright said that Democrats should not presume that Black voters will immediately re-join the party, even if Trump’s popularity among Black Americans has been declining in recent surveys.
“We cannot make assumptions about any group, in particular, younger Black voters,” stated Seawright, a senior advisor to the Democratic National Committee and a consultant on Hillary Clinton’s efforts in 2008 and 2016.
“They aren’t completely convinced that Democrats can handle the job simply because they think Trump isn’t doing it well or at all,” Seawright added. “We still need to work on building trust.”
Republican strategists have stated the same thing. Republicans need to reach out to Black voters immediately if they want to ride Trump’s wave of support, according to Jordan of the Black Conservative Federation.
And Trump must remain engaged, he said.
“Donald Trump commands attention, regardless of your feelings toward him,” Jordan remarked. “The president must maintain the same level of enthusiasm for the midterm elections as he did for his own presidential campaign if we are to witness a surge.”
Although the Republican Party does have choices, Fields said that, outside of Trump, no strong voice has been presented who can credibly engage Black people. As potential stand-ins, Fields mentioned Tim Scott of South Carolina, Wesley Hunt of Texas and Byron Donalds of Florida, as well as himself.
The Republican Party’s Black members of Congress are among its most promising young leaders. In preparation for the midterms, Scott became leadership of the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, a prominent position that puts him in the public eye and puts him in touch with wealthy contributors, both of which might serve him well in a future presidential bid.
Donalds, who is seeking reelection in the state that Trump has claimed as his own, and Rep. John James (R-Michigan), who is in a tight race for reelection in his own state, are two other members of the group that will be competing for governor in 2026. The tumultuous Texas Senate primary is another factor that Hunt is considering.
Even though Democrats still have a long way to go, Democratic strategist Seawright was skeptical that the five Black Republicans now sitting in Congress could sway Black voters away from the Democrats or act as a stand-in for Trump’s appeal.
“I honestly don’t believe any of those individuals can enter any conventional Black space and successfully promote their agenda,” Seawright stated. “However, I believe it’s important to address the issue of individuals who lack a sense of connection to the process, who don’t perceive any common ground, and who consequently feel exposed.”