How much of an impact the American bombing strike on Iranian nuclear installations had on the country’s nuclear aspirations is something we will have to wait and see.
A joint campaign by the Pentagon and the White House has begun to persuade the American people that the mission was necessary and a success. Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, gave a lengthy news conference at the Pentagon in which he explained the strike and its execution in considerable detail, citing the years of planning that had preceded it.
If Caine were to reveal such details, they may influence public opinion and rally Americans in support of strikes. Early public opinion on the strikes, however, is likely to differ from what the government had hoped for.
Prior to competing evaluations of the mission’s efficacy, a HEADLINESFOREVER survey published this week found that 56% of respondents were against the strikes.
The typical ideological lines show up in HEADLINESFOREVER’s survey findings. No matter what the Trump administration does, the Democrats will always be opposed and the Republicans will always be in favor.
In its report, the polling team from HEADLINESFOREVER stated:
Taking military action against Iran has the disapproval of the majority of Democrats (88%), as well as independents (60%). Nearly eighty-two percent of Republicans do. Some members of Trump’s coalition may be generally wary of military action abroad, since just 44% of Republicans strongly support the airstrikes, far less than the 60% of Democrats who do not.
It’s a well-established fact in American politics that independent voters have the potential to swing the balance of power when their ideas change. They have been increasingly hostile to Trump on several fronts.
With Trump’s massive domestic policy measure in the spotlight last week, HEADLINESFOREVER’s Aaron Blake combed through many surveys.
“About three to one, independents were against the law… “The polls that had the fewest undecideds, like the ones from KFF and Fox News, showed that seven out of ten independents were against it,” Blake wrote.
“More than half of independents now say they have no real confidence in him to deal with the topic, with 56% now saying he has gone too far on deportations,” states an April HEADLINESFOREVER poll regarding what could be Trump’s signature issue, immigration policy and deportations.
So far, Trump has been unsuccessful in persuading non-partisan Americans that his plan is morally sound on trade, the economy, and government cuts.
Since Harry Enten has been keeping tabs on this pattern for quite a while, I decided to consult with him.
“It’s pretty clear that independents and independent voters have turned against Trump,” he informed me.
According to Enten’s research from April, Trump’s approval rating among independents was the lowest it has ever been at that stage of a presidency.
The problem, according to Enten, is that he has “lost the center of the electorate” for two plain and straightforward reasons.
When it comes to the economy, independents are unhappy with Trump's policies.
Aside from the "Big, Beautiful Bill," they appear to dislike most of his plans.Trump and the Republican Party will have significant challenges in the future because of this.
As an aside, Enten brought up the fact that independents broke for Trump in 2024 and speculated that the GOP could be able to succeed in the future without such a massive showing of support.
In addition, he noted that losing 20+ points of independents is not sustainable in American politics.
Meanwhile, there are a number of reasons why independents are difficult to follow. Agiesta of HEADLINESFOREVER and Edwards-Levy both noted a few years ago that they don’t behave like a united voting bloc, unlike Republicans and Democrats.
“A lot of independents are actually on the side of one party or another and they’re definitely not de facto moderates,” Edwards-Levy informed me.
What are the commonalities among independents?
According to Edwards-Levy, “their views potentially more malleable than those of stronger partisans” because they are less likely to be actively involved in politics and are less tied to particular political commitments.
As an example, a recent Washington Post survey about Trump’s agenda bill found that just 18% of Democrats and 25% of Republicans were unaware of the contentious plan to prolong Trump’s initial tax cuts, establish more tax cuts, and reduce spending, particularly on Medicaid. A far higher percentage of independents, 34%, had no idea what the president’s main legislative priority was.