U.S. officials were on high alert Monday in anticipation of possible Iranian reprisal for last week’s assassination of a senior Hamas commander in Tehran, but little was known about when or how far Iran may go in its response.
According to several US authorities in Washington and the surrounding area, Iran is expected to take revenge on Israel for the execution of Ismail Haniyeh in the near future, maybe even in the next day or two, according to AWN.
One reason the US hasn’t been able to predict when and how Iran will respond is because, according to two US officials, Iran has already moved some of the military assets needed to launch a big attack on Israel in April, making it harder for US intelligence to predict its actions now.
Officials are consulting a variety of sources for information, and there is disagreement among national security experts over the timing and nature of Iran’s reaction.
As it seeks to unite allies and put pressure on Iran to avoid escalating tensions, the Biden administration has taken a defensive stance due to the relative uncertainty.
The assassinations of high-ranking Hamas official Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fu’ad Shukr in Lebanon last week have plunged the conflict into its most precarious phase to date. Haniyeh’s duties included serving as the group’s principal hostage negotiator and peace negotiator.
Iran has threatened to retaliate for the death of Haniyeh, which might escalate the crisis into a regional war involving the United States, even though most of the fighting has taken place between Israel and Iran’s proxies, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Israeli forces have not officially taken responsibility for the death of Haniyeh in Iran, however they did so for Shakr in reaction to a rocket attack that killed twelve children in Majdal Shams, a town in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
What Iran does in response to Haniyeh’s death will determine how deeply the US gets involved in the conflict. Two US destroyers, moved from the Gulf of Oman to the Red Sea in recent days—bringing both ships closer to Israel—in preparation for possible Iranian retribution, according to a US official.
The USS Laboon and USS Cole are two of several assets deployed strategically across the region by US Central Command in response to concerns that Iran may soon launch a second big attack on Israel this year. In April, Iran fired missiles and drones towards Israel, which US destroyers assisted in neutralizing.
Efforts to “de-escalate regional tensions” were reportedly discussed during Biden’s Monday morning conversation with the king of Jordan, as reported by the White House announcement. Later on Monday afternoon, the national security team of the government is supposed to convene in the White House Situation Room with Vice President Kamala Harris and Joe Biden.
While warning of radical Israeli violence against Palestinians, the monarch of Jordan highlighted the need of de-escalating the situation in the region.
For the first time in decades, Iran took direct action against Israel in April when it sent hundreds of drones and missiles into the Jewish state in response to the assassinations of Iranian officials at a site it deemed a diplomatic complex in Syria.
However, at that particular time, US intelligence officers were able to observe the placement of weapons systems and other equipment, which is a crucial indicator for determining the timing and nature of an adversary’s military actions, because Tehran had telegraphed its goal, according to sources.
The US Central Command used that information to build a defensive alliance and coordinate a strategy that allowed them to shoot down nearly all of Iran’s missiles that night.
Officials who spoke with AWN on anonymity said that this time around, the US intelligence picture is considerably more cloudy. The Biden administration is rushing to prevent a full-scale conflict from breaking out, despite officials’ internal doubts about the feasibility of limiting Iran’s nuclear program.