Following the Trump administration’s decision to temporarily halt information cooperation with Kyiv, Ukraine’s European allies are hastily stepping in to fill the vacuum. Doing this will be challenging.
Ukraine has been able to hit Russian locations during the three-year battle because to the targeting data, satellite imaging, and signals intelligence given by the United States.
The onus is now on other NATO intelligence giants, such as Germany, France, and Britain, to compensate. However, it’s doubtful that they can match the size and breadth of the enormous United States intelligence community.
A European official, who wished to remain anonymous in order to discuss openly the continent’s security procedures, expressed doubt that European nations would be able to close the gap.
The United States intelligence community, which includes 18 separate organizations, is light years ahead of its European competitors, especially when it comes to analytical prowess and satellite technology.
“It’s really a matter of mass,” stated Jim Townsend, who held the position of deputy assistant secretary of defense for Europe and NATO during Obama’s administration. “We have an abundance of analysts and systems, some of which are more sophisticated than others.”
Since the Trump administration has been more accommodating toward Moscow and hostile toward Ukraine (including stopping armaments deliveries to Kyiv), the information sharing freeze has exacerbated European concerns about countering Russia.
There was a lot of misunderstanding following Wednesday’s declaration; on Thursday, Ukraine’s military minister said that his country had not yet gotten information about the restrictions on intelligence. According to the European source, the extent of the embargo is “still puzzling” as of Thursday.
After ten years of meticulous nurturing, the United States’ intelligence partnership with Ukraine is flourishing. The wide array of resources available to Washington, including communications, human intelligence, and satellite capabilities, has been important in warning Ukraine of Moscow’s 2022 invasion preparations and fighting against the barrage of Russian missiles.
In response to a question on whether or whether the intelligence sharing delay included potentially defense-related data, the National Security Council chose not to comment.
“The most damaging and hostile decision is turning off intelligence,” stated Camille Grand, a former assistant secretary general for defense investment at NATO. The Europeans can help lessen the blow of weapon supply cuts, which will take a few months to materialize. “There will be short-term repercussions if the intelligence denial is not a pause,” he said.
Members of NATO have been debating how to respond to the United States’ declaration that it will temporarily halt intelligence cooperation with Ukraine. Allies do not want to risk their current connections with Washington or each other, so any sharing of U.S. data with Ukraine would likely be restricted, according to one source involved with the conversations. However, NATO countries are not forbidden from sharing certain material with Ukraine.
The United States is currently describing to its allies the suspension of arms shipments and intelligence sharing with Ukraine as a temporary measure until the war talks make progress, according to one NATO official. The alliance is not being pressured by the Trump administration to reduce or limit its own cooperation with Ukraine in these areas.
Nevertheless, according to Wednesday’s edition of the Daily Mail, American information had been cleared to be shared with Ukraine, and the US had instructed the UK to cease supplying it. (The British government official did not want to be quoted in the story.)
The minister of defense for France, Sébastien Lecornu, declared Thursday that French intelligence was “sovereign” and promised to keep sharing information with Ukraine. He remained mum on the specifics of the French information cooperation with the Ukrainians.
Already, people are feeling the repercussions of the U.S. intelligence freeze.
Ukrainian military employ the services of U.S. satellite business Maxar—one of the largest producers of commercial satellite images to Ukraine—to analyze the battlefield landscape and prepare strikes on Russian positions, but the company has banned Ukraine’s access to its services.
Maxar spokeswoman Gia DeHart released a statement stating that the US government has cut off Ukraine’s access to the company’s contract-funded Global Enhanced GEOINT Delivery program.
Russian military formations, movements, and supplies can’t be known in real-time or with any degree of accuracy by the Ukrainians without U.S. information.
Mykola Bielieskov, an expert with Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies, stated, “We now have less information about what’s happening on the other side of the front line.” While acknowledging that the United States had some indigenous capabilities derived from human intelligence sources, he emphasized the significant role that U.S. intelligence played in keeping them informed.
Any disruption to warnings about potential Russian missile attacks is of particular concern to Ukraine.
Every second counts when it comes to anti-ballistic missile defense, according to Bielieskov. To identify a missile launch, you want satellite intelligence of a military quality.
Since the war began, Russia has targeted Ukraine with an average of 24 missiles each day. On certain days, vital infrastructure and residential areas in Ukraine’s cities can be targeted by as many as one hundred missiles, albeit there are lulls in the launch rate—perhaps caused by manufacturing issues in Moscow.
Ukrainian legislator Maryana Bezuhla, who was a member of the parliamentary military and intelligence committee until recently, warned that “this is going to impact our cities and could result in mass destruction.”
As a result of the intelligence sharing halt, the Ukrainian military will not have access to targeting information for the HIMARS rockets supplied by the United States. As Bielieskov put it, “we’re shooting half-blind” when it comes to firing them.
When asked if any European nations could step in to replace the intelligence that has been banned, Bielieskov said with a “only partially, fully no.”
Europe is already wondering if it can keep relying on the United States for military and intelligence help to guarantee its security in the long run, thanks to the intelligence freeze.
The head of Germany’s parliamentary intelligence committee, Konstantin von Notz, has warned that Europe can’t keep depending on American intelligence assistance and has called for the creation of a European surveillance network.
In an interview with HEADLINESFOREVER published Friday, von Notz stated, “We need a European intelligence cooperation format — call it ‘Euro Eyes’ — to ensure that strong states can exchange information swiftly and securely on clear legal grounds.” “Euro Eyes” may be the name given to this format. “In the future, we will have to augment our own intelligence capabilities.”