The administration’s insistence that they are unable to save Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a guy they acknowledged in court to wrongfully deporting to a prison in El Salvador along with other migrants, has been shocking to hear.
This act of weakness is misleading because the Trump administration’s reputation is largely based on strength, particularly in international relations. Trump often claims that he is the one who has all the cards. Additionally, it goes against Trump’s history of releasing those who were wrongly jailed overseas. He has succeeded in rescuing hostages, most of whom are Americans, from countries like Iran and Venezuela, which are known to be hostile. According to this story, Abrego Garcia and other migrants whose legal status Trump has disputed are being held by Trump friend and El Salvadoran leader Nayib Bukele. There must be a way to persuade Bukele, who is so eager to win Trump over, to release Abrego Garcia.
The Trump administration’s reluctance to comply with the Supreme Court’s decision to aid Abrego Garcia’s repatriation is one thing, but the claim that it is powerless to do so is quite another.
In fact, I contacted five living and dead U.S. officials to talk about this, and they all said the same thing: that Trump and Bukele’s acts of powerlessness were ridiculous, if not Kafkaesque. The majority of the officials were willing to put their names down and offered a number of specific steps that Trump might take; others were allowed anonymity to prevent possible punishment.
According to Ned Price, a former official in Joe Biden’s administration, Trump and his associates seem to prioritize appeasing the Republican base by harshly punishing migrants rather than maintaining legal compliance: “In their minds, this is a fight they’re eager to start.” The leaders of the United States and El Salvador saw it as “brutality,” “cruelty,” and “lawlessness” that are “performative and part of the brand,” according to Eliot Cohen, a former U.S. ambassador who served under George W. Bush and has been an outspoken opponent of Trump.
Okay, then, let’s act out the scene.
Maybe Trump has lost sight of his own influence in this area, given that he sometimes seems not to understand the Abrego Garcia issue. How many options does he have if he determines that Abrego Garcia, along with maybe other deported inmates who were denied due process, should be allowed to return to the US?
Asking Bukele to return the soldiers is the first move, according to current and former US officials. Bukele, who touts himself as the “world’s coolest dictator” once again desires to provide joy to Trump. Then why reject the request?
Trump can utilize incentives, pressure methods, or a combination of the two to convince the young leader Bukele to comply if he is resistant.
Trump is able to choose from a variety of incentives. Some examples include easing tariffs on El Salvador, providing greater direct U.S. financial aid, and backing El Salvador’s interests in international forums.
Tactics that apply pressure are more nuanced, yet they are quite effective.
The United States is paying Bukele millions of dollars to manage the infamous CECOT jail, where the majority of deportees that the United States has sent to El Salvador are held indefinitely. Trump may do well to halt this funding immediately. (Abrego Garcia, a native of El Salvador whose case has been under close examination, has been transferred to another jail, if only temporarily; nonetheless, he remains a prisoner.)
Sanctioning visas is another measure to take. These can be more specific, like a ban on Bukele’s family members entering the US, or they might apply to broader categories of persons. Due to the South Sudanese government’s refusal to accept an individual the U.S. was attempting to deport, the Trump administration imposed a general visa restriction on all inhabitants of the country in early April. Although the South Sudanese administration hastily agreed to take in the deportee, there is still no indication that the visa block has been completely relaxed. (I tried to get an answer from the State Department, but they avoided doing so.)
Following that, there are economic sanctions, the amount, extent, and impact of which might differ, similar to visa restrictions. Two high-ranking Turkish government officials were hit with economic sanctions by Trump during his first term due to his outrage over the incarceration of an American pastor in Turkey. The action was so shocking that Turkey’s currency fell to new lows; after all, it targeted a NATO partner. The pastor, Andrew Brunson, was let free by Turkey quite fast.
In an effort to address issues unrelated to the economy, Trump has also shown a willingness to use tariffs in a manner reminiscent of sanctions. As an argument for imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico, he has cited the influx of migrants and narcotics, particularly fentanyl, into U.S. territory. Thus, Bukele’s country may face increased tariffs if its citizens refuse to return captives.
Trump has another target in El Salvador: the government’s reliance on remittances sent by Salvadorans working in the US. A restriction on these funds would be a major setback for the country.
Trump may also attempt to exert diplomatic pressure by, for example, withdrawing diplomatic envoys from El Salvador or by forming alliances with other nations to isolate El Salvador. As seen with Trump’s prior agreement to prisoner swaps with hostile parties like the Afghan Taliban and Iran, diplomatic conversations may oftentimes achieve outcomes on their own.
To apprehend runaway criminals or free captives, the United States hasn’t shied away from using its own military forces.
I reached out to White House spokespersons for their thoughts and feedback, but I have yet to hear back.
It may all boil down to Trump’s decision on whether it’s preferable to bring Abrego Garcia (and maybe other prisoners) back into the country or to maintain the status quo.
Even though the DOJ has acknowledged in court that they wrongfully deported Abrego Garcia to El Salvador—the very nation a judge had ordered him not to be sent because of the danger to his life—Trump and his associates are now not going to publicly accept this. Instead of charging him with a crime, they’re painting him as a member of a terrorist gang. No proof supports this accusation.
There is some indication that Trump’s numbers are declining as a result of the Abrego Garcia case, but surveys on his handling of immigration still show mixed results.
The increasing number of Democrats traveling to El Salvador to visit Abrego Garcia and other inmates suggests that they view this political battle as worthwhile. The deportations have been halted by the Supreme Court, further inflaming Trump’s political situation. Democratic leaders may have seized an opportunity to shift the focus of the debate away from the contentious issue of immigration and toward the rule of law and due process when Trump dropped hints that he would deport American citizens to an El Salvadorian jail.
Ivo Daalder, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO and current foreign policy expert, stated, “The president — I think he’s making a mistake.” “Having this guy back would have been so much better. Then he could have just moved on.”
While Trump has sent several Venezuelan nationals to the CECOT jail, Bukele has suggested an arrangement similar to a prisoner swap with that country. The deportations ordered by Trump may become considerably more difficult to undo if he is successful.
Several prominent figures from throughout the globe have taken strong positions in favor of a single American political party, typically the Republican Party, in recent years. As I’ve mentioned previously, that strategy has the potential to be effective: the party you support will support you if they are elected to power, and even if they are unsuccessful, they will still hinder the victor’s ability to attack you.
Bukele may be placing such a wager by taking such a firm stance in support of Trump. However, dangers persist.
The Democrats may reclaim a lot of power if the resistance to Trump is strong enough in the next years. Perhaps they would be less hesitant to employ Trump’s tariffs and remittances if they had them at their disposal.
Keep this in mind, Bukele, as you and Trump act as if returning Abrego Garcia to the United States is impossible.