Elon Musk has pledged to use his political party to cause a stir in the midterm elections. No big deal for Democrats.
Democrats contended that Republicans who are battling for razor-thin margins in next year’s midterm elections could be endangered by Musk’s unfulfilled plans to establish a “America Party” because it would attract more disillusioned conservatives from Republicans than disillusioned liberals from Democrats.
“It leads to a better position for Democrats in what I think was already a pretty good position going into 2026,” said Curtis Hertel, chair of the Michigan Democratic Party.
During the 2024 election, Musk spent hundreds of millions of dollars supporting President Trump and other Republicans. Still, ever since he severed ties with the president, Musk has made it clear that he wants to start his own third party and that Republicans who supported the One Big Beautiful Bill Act should have primary opponents.
For a long time, both the Democrats and the Republicans have griped about how minor parties, such as the Greens or the Libertarians, may throw off the outcome of tight contests. Neither of those groups, however, has the financial backing that Musk does.
Additionally, a recent survey conducted by Marquette University Law School indicated that whilst just one-quarter of Democrats would back an America Party candidate in their state or congressional district, forty percent of Republicans express some level of likelihood of doing so.
The inclusion of another contender might potentially be the deciding factor in the rematch, according to Iowa Democrat Christina Bohannan, who is running for reelection against Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Iowa) for the third time in 2019.
The 2024 contest was “one of the very closest races in the country” according to Bohannan, who said that the margin of victory was razor-thin at 799 votes out of 413,000. “Thus, anything that changes the composition of the race with regard to independent candidates could make a difference.”
Several strategic and administrative obstacles remain for the party that Musk has not formally established yet. If he follows through, though, the ex-head of the Department of Government Efficiency indicated that his party might “laser-focus” on two or three Senate seats and eight or ten House districts, giving the third party a substantial enough presence to influence controversial legislation.
According to Heath Mayo, a conservative activist and founder of the advocacy organization Principles First, the GOP might be exposed by the third-party bid due to the restricted mandate and Musk’s intentional targeting of Republicans on fiscal recklessness.
It appears rather limited in content, was Mayo’s initial impression. “And I believe that’s why it attracts parts of his fan base that have made their way into the Republican Party’s core.”
A remark request submitted by email went unanswered by Musk.
The likelihood that an individual will vote or identify with a third party is often exaggerated by voters. However, new surveys show that Americans are amenable to the idea, at least in theory.
According to polls conducted earlier this month by Quinnipiac University, a mere 17% of voters are interested in joining a party led by Musk, although over 50% of respondents express interest in joining a third party. But the poll indicated that nearly three times as many Republicans as Democrats would think about joining Musk’s third party, so it may take members from the Republican Party.
Republican political expert Barrett Marson of Arizona warned that Democrats in close districts might also lose support to a candidate with libertarian leanings who receives funding from Musk.
“Elon Musk has the drive and financial wherewithal to match it,” Marson said, adding that Musk could potentially be a spoiler or at least provide a candidate with a possibility of winning in either way.
According to Charlie Gerow, a Republican operative in Pennsylvania, Musk’s capacity to effectively launch third-party campaigns hinges on the specific districts he seeks and the individuals he nominates.
A large number of elections might be influenced by Elon Musk’s wealth, according to Gerow. The candidates and their platforms must be considered, though. His level of success is dependent on a number of things. Since we have no idea what he’s going to do, I don’t think we can anticipate the result at this point.
Republicans, who gained much from Musk’s generosity in 2024, may feel the effects of his animosity for Trump even if he is unable in getting people on the ballot.
Despite Democrats’ skepticism, Charlie Bailey, chair of the Georgia Democratic Party and a contender in one of the most heated Senate contests next year, expressed optimism that the initiative would ultimately work in their favor.
“In my opinion, if something is associated with Elon Musk, it will not appeal to Democrats or many independents,” Bailey stated. I don’t believe those folks are likely to be very receptive to us anyhow, since if it has Elon Musk branding, it’s likely to attract most right-wing Republicans.